If the Ottawa Senators are going to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016/2017 season, they’re going to need to get off to a better start.
The Atlantic Division remains generally stacked with quality teams and for the Senators to keep pace with the likes of Tampa Bay, Florida, Toronto and Boston, they’ll want to bank points early and often when the puck drops for real in October.
Getting the ship pointed in the right direction is important for every team really but it feels especially critical in the Nation’s Capital.
With expectations dialed up a notch or two after a flashy off-season, it’s clear that the plan has shifted from rebuild, to compete, to win. And win often. Nobody is publicly declaring playoffs as the goal for this season but that has to be the way they’re thinking in the room. This was a group that already felt pretty good about itself and now with Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux in the mix, they should be ready to take that next step.
In addition to that shift in expectations, last season’s disastrous start serves as a good example of what can happen if you’re not ready to go right off the hop. The Senators won just four games in the first two months of the season, including a brutal stretch where they won just a single game in 13 tries. The season was over before it started really.
If the Senators want to get back to playing meaningful hockey games in February, March and April, they need to play a whole lot better in October and November. A glance at the schedule shows that this will be especially important in 2022/2023.
There are no easy games in today’s NHL and especially not for a team like Ottawa. The Senators will ice a roster that can win on any given night obviously, but they certainly won’t be in a position where they can take a team lightly. With that said, both October and November are littered with what look like winable hockey games. And a lot of them are on home ice.
After starting the season with road games in Buffalo and Toronto, the Senators return to the Canadian Tire Centre for five straight. It’s their longest home stand of the year and it comes in just the second and third week of the season. And then after a quick trip to Florida, they come back and play three more at the CTC. That’s 8 of 10 games on home ice. Without overstating things, it feels like a stretch that has the potential to be a defining moment in their season. They don’t need to win all of them obviously but they do need to get off on the right foot.
@ Buffalo
@ Toronto
Boston
Washington
Arizona
Dallas
Minnesota
@ Florida
@ Tampa Bay
Vegas
Philadelphia
Vancouver
On paper anyway, that looks like a stretch where they should win more often than they lose.
The other interesting thing about Ottawa’s schedule in those first two months of the season is there is not one back-to-back situation. The Senators have been burned by playing a ton of back-to-back games in previous years but this time, they appear to get off easy. In the first two months anyway.
Here’s how the back-to-backs break down by month…
October- 0
November- 0
December- 2
January- 2
February- 3
March- 2
April- 1
Ten back-to-backs is pretty light to begin with but avoiding them completely in the first two months of the season is a huge plus. Not only does it mean the team will have some early rest, it also allows for some much-needed practice time. Last year, the schedule combined with a team-wide battle with COVID meant DJ Smith and his staff had next to no time to work through some of the structural issues they were facing. And it sunk them in those first two months.
Heightened expectations, a favourable schedule, lots of home games, built-in rest and plenty of early season practice time all adds up to a scenario where the Ottawa Senators have to get off to a good start.
And if they don’t, it’s safe to assume that the GM and Head Coach could feel the heat a little bit.
Speaking of heat, it’s early August and none of this matters right now.
-We’re still a good 70 days from the start of the NHL season but a couple Sens prospects will be suiting up for Team Canada beginning next week in Edmonton. Both Ridly Greig and Zack Ostapchuk have been included on Canada’s Summer World Junior roster, with the tournament opener set for Wednesday against Latvia. Greig is expected to play a key role for Team Canada while Ostapchuk was a bit of a surprise addition to the Canadian roster after a couple injuries opened up a spot on the roster. Looks like he may sit the opener based on today’s practice lines. Those two join Roby Järventie, Leevi Meriläinen, Tomáš Hamara and Tyler Kleven on the list of Senators playing in this year’s tournament, which starts on Tuesday. You can see the full schedule here.
