With the NHL Trade Deadline now come and gone, we finally have a better sense of what this team will look like down the stretch and heading into next season.
At least for now, anyway.
The summer could still be a busy one for the Ottawa Senators as they’ll need to make a series of decisions that will shape the future of the franchise.
At the top of that list is obviously the Captain and face of the franchise, Erik Karlsson. They’ll also have to decide what to do with Matt Duchene, as he’ll be entering the final year of his deal. Mark Stone is an RFA as of July 1st and is expected to be in line for a big raise. Magnus Paajarvi and Chris Wideman are UFAs and Freddy Claesson is an RFA to be.
And then there’s the other restricted free agent- Cody Ceci.
Ceci is currently in the final year of his two year contract, earning $3,350,000 this season. The current deal carries a cap hit of $2.8 million and by all accounts, he can expect a fairly significant raise heading into next season.
It’s going to be a huge test for Pierre Dorion.
It’s no secret that Dorion likes Ceci. In a recent interview, Dorion said ““I’m a big fan. Cody is one player – and I know a lot of the pundits out there might disagree with it – I’d like to have as a Senator for a long, long time.”
It was that comment that made it pretty clear the Senators weren’t going to seriously listen to offers on Ceci before the deadline despite some interest from other teams. And the quote also had fans wondering what a long-term deal might look like for Ceci. $4.5 mil a season? $5 mil?
At 24 years of age and theoretically in the prime of his career, Ceci would certainly be looking to cash-in on a multi-year extension.
But the Senators will have to take a long, hard look at what Ceci brings to the line up and decide whether that’s worth a long-term commitment at this point in time.
Ceci’s offensive production is almost non-existent. He has just 16 points through 62 games this season. He’s likely to surpass his point total of 17 from last year but barring a hot streak down the stretch, he’ll get nowhere near the career-high 26 he put up in the 2015/2016 season. Offence just isn’t a big part of what Ceci brings to the table. And while he sits second in time on ice, trailing only Erik Karlsson, his underlying numbers and the eye test suggest that he is frequently over-whelmed in his own end of the rink.
Despite being cast as one by Guy Boucher, there’s little evidence to support the idea that he’s a shut down defenceman.
So the organization has to ask themselves whether a long-term extension is necessary as this point. And more importantly, whether it’s worth the risk.
Over the last five or six seasons and particularly in the era of the “budget”, the Senators have been sort of tough on their restricted free agents. And they have been able to sign some great value contracts as a result.
They always use the leverage they have and in the case of Ceci, they should have plenty of that. So much so that it might be worth letting this one play out in arbitration. While Ceci could certainly make an argument that he’s clearly a top four defenceman on the team in terms of ice time, his production and performance doesn’t exactly call for a huge raise.
Ceci has become a lightning-rod for criticism during his time in Ottawa. Some of it has probably been a little bit over the top and there’s no doubt that he has sort been sort of miscast by the current Coaching Staff. He plays too much and in too tough of situations. But with 346 NHL games under his belt, it’s safe to assume that what you see is what you get with Ceci. He probably still has a bit of room to grow as a player but there is no hidden offensive potential there. There’s no breakout season coming.
And that’s why a long-term gamble would be a mistake.
Now that the Senators have missed another opportunity to listen to trade offers on Ceci, the decision on where to go from here should be an easy one for Pierre Dorion. And it’s one he absolutely has to get right.
How would you handle the Cody Ceci contract negotiation? And, what do you expect Dorion to do?
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