Karlsson’s Contract- Analyzing the Predictions

Thanks to those of you that took the time to enter the latest SensChirp contest.  Predicting Erik Karlsson’s contract is certainly not an easy task and I can tell you that the people I have talked to seem to be split on how the Sens are going to approach these negotiations.

Contacts seem to be convinced it’s going to either be a lengthy deal, that locks Karlsson down long term or something much shorter, especially when you consider the uncertainty around the CBA.

I thought it might be interesting to share some of the trends that came up after sorting through nearly 150 predictions.  Keep in mind; I haven’t had a chance to check my junk mail to see if there are more in there. 

• The earliest date a contract gets done? Tomorrow. The latest? More than three months from now (August 29).
• The shortest term predicted was two years. The longest came in at ten years with majority of you predicting five or six years.
• The smallest total value was $13,000,000 while the biggest number came in at a whopping $65,000,000.  Gotta think that number would make Eugene a little uneasy!
• The majority of entries have the date signed coming at some point in June.  That makes sense as the Sens have to be at least a little bit concerned about the possibility of an offer sheet.  The most common date predicted- June 28, 2012.  I’ll be sure to be ready to post on that day.
• Thanks to the magic of Excel, I was able to calculate the cap hits on each prediction.  The smallest came in at $5 million per season while the largest was an astronomical $9.1 million a season.  The majority have Karlsson signing for somewhere between $6-$6.5 million a year.

Now that the contest has closed, I encourage you all to share your predictions in the comment section below and perhaps a little explanation on how you landed at that number.  It should be interesting to track this contest over the course of the summer.

Thanks again to the good folks at Wisers for providing these excellent prizes.  Should the winner choose the round of golf, you can expect a Ryder Cup style showdown against myself and the Wisers Guy with a Texas Mickey of Wisers on the line!