The Ottawa Senators are going to sign Brady Tkachuk.
I recognize the last one of these is still lingering but in the case of a Tkachuk extension, it’s not a matter of if but when. Start with that assumption.
When Brady Tkachuk’s current three-year entry level contract expires, the Senators will give him a new one. Outside of those rare instances, that’s just how it works with restricted free agents.
He’s one of their most important players and a central piece in Ottawa’s rebuilding plan.
As a fan base, we’ve gone through some hard times with our unrestricted guys in the last few years but when it comes to RFAs, the Senators find a way to get it done. And in most instances, it ends up being a great deal for the team.
Say what you will about Eugene Melnyk’s willingness to spend but the recent contracts handed out to Thomas Chabot and Colin White certainly suggest that the money is there when it comes to the team’s future core.
What remains to be seen though is the structure of that next deal and the timing of the extension. Both those elements are very much up for debate and will be a major talking point for the Senators in the weeks and months to come.
As far as the timing goes, there’s no real rush.
Loading …As an RFA entering the final year of his deal, Tkachuk will be eligible for an extension whenever the NHL gets around to the “off-season” but that doesn’t mean the Senators need to get it done right away. Tkachuk has another full season on his current deal and it’s entirely possible both sides would prefer to wait until the end of the 2020-2021 season to hammer something out.
And with so many RFA contracts already on his To Do List- including Chris Tierney, Connor Brown, Anthony Duclair- Pierre Dorion is going to be a busy man during that relatively short off-season window.
Where things get really interesting with Brady Tkachuk is in the structure of that next deal.
While it’s clear that Brady is going to be a force in the National Hockey League and key piece of the rebuild here in Ottawa, there are still some question marks when it comes to his offensive potential.
In his first season, he put up 22 goals and 45 points in 71 games. He followed that up with a 21 goal/44 point year, again in just 71 games due to the league pause. Pretty consistent production in his first two years as a pro but I don’t think there’s much doubt that he’s only beginning to scratch the surface of his offensive potential. As he gets bigger and stronger and if the Senators can find him a decent centre, I don’t think it’s out of the question for him to be a regular 30-35 goal/60-70 point kind of guy.
That’s where the Senators have a decision to make- bridge deal (something in the two to three year range) that allows them to wait and see where that offensive production ends up or a longer-term deal where they’ll be paying for potential a little bit.
Brady Tkachuk is as safe a bet as you’ll find but in the not too distant future, cap management is going to be important for the Senators. So they need to plan ahead.
On a shorter term deal, that cap hit probably lands in the $5 to $6 mil range. Less than what Matthew Tkachuk got on his three-year deal in Calgary. Of course that could change if Brady puts up big numbers next season. On a longer term deal (as in like eight years), that cap hit likely lands close to $7 mil a season.
There are arguments to be made for either approach and obviously, a lot of it will depend on what Brady Tkachuk and his agent (Craig Oster) are looking for on his next contract. Given the economic uncertainty around the NHL right now, it’s entirely possible the Tkachuk camp will want to wait things out a little bit.
Loading …The good news is, it’s going to get done. Whether it’s this off-season or next, the Ottawa Senators are going to sign Brady Tkachuk. And we’ll get to watch Brady Tkachuk infuriate the opposition for years to come.
How they structure that deal is one of the many important issues facing Pierre Dorion and his staff as they move into the “rebuilding” portion of this rebuild.
The Ottawa Senators were incredibly fortunate to land Brady Tkachuk in the 2018 Draft. He’s the type of player you can build around. The type of player that gives your franchise an instant identity and a guy that can and will make a difference when this team returns to the playoffs.
Locking him up should be a priority for the Ottawa Senators.
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-Expect to hear increased chatter about the idea of a “rebrand” in the weeks to come with something potentially released around the Draft in October. There have been rumours out there for a while now and the topic is getting attention on Twitter again in the last couple days. We have discussed the topic here a few times in the last couple months but the rumours I’ve heard involve a return to the 2D logo on a primarily black jersey. This is of course the correct decision and long overdue. It will be interesting to see if they try to “update” the logo in the process.
-With cap flexibility, tons of prospects and a handful of draft picks, Pierre Dorion is going to be in an interesting position this off-season. There are going to be teams looking to create financial flexibility and the Senators are one of the few teams that have that already have that flexibility. Last night, there were rumours that the Vancouver Canucks may entertain the idea of moving Brock Boeser this summer. Not sure if he’s necessarily a fit for the Senators but they certainly have the pieces to make an interesting offer, should the Canucks decide to go that route.
-Lastly, we have a date! With the NHL and NHLPA ratifying the CBA late yesterday, they also locked in a date for the 2020 Entry Draft in the process. October 9th and 10th. Interestingly enough, given the condensed off-season, there’s a chance the Draft and the start of Free Agency could take place on the same day. Works for me!
