Fourteen games in and some of our off-season fears are gradually being realized.
Prior to the start of the 2015/2016 campaign the conversation about this team generally went like this- solid looking group of forwards, strong in goal, but I worry a little bit about that blueline. Experts said it. The comment section talked about it endlessly. Even the casual fan wondered whether the blueline was good enough.
And while it’s still early in the season, there is definitely a cause for concern when it comes to this team’s ability to defend. And that’s not just defenceman necessarily but rather their ability to defend as five man units.
This Ottawa Senators team has been getting some pretty solid results in the early going. They sit second in the Atlantic Division with a respectable 7-4-3 record. They’ve done a good job banking points that will be useful during a late season playoff drive. But while their record looks pretty good, there are some disturbing trends in their overall play.
Like, for example, the number of shots they are giving up. Heading into this week, no team in the entire National Hockey League gives up as many shots as the Ottawa Senators. According to War on Ice, they are giving up 32.6 shots against per sixty minutes at 5 on 5.
That’s way too many.
The goaltending is holding up so far but as we’ve been reminded so often by the analytics experts and seen first-hand through the collapse of teams like Toronto, Colorado and this year Calgary, it’s just not a path to long term success. Bend but don’t break just isn’t a sustainable approach over an 82 game season. It can work. But as we saw on Saturday night, sometimes you break at the worst possible time.
Linked to the shots against issue is a suddenly struggling penalty kill. In the early part of the season they were sort of middle of the pack but it has been a significant concern lately. The Sens are now ranked 28th in the NHL, killing just 75.5% of power plays. Only the Blue Jackets and Bruins have been worse. And with the power play now sitting 25th in the NHL at just 13.9% efficiency, the Senators are far too often on the wrong end of the special teams battle too.
This is still a results-based league. Win games and the negatives can pretty easily be ignored. But when you lose games like the Senators did on Saturday night, and consistently let third period leads slip away as Ottawa has done far too often this year, the hand-wringing is inevitable. Even the most optimistic of fan can get a little nervous.
So what’s the problem? A good question. And one Dave Cameron and his staff have to figure out in a hurry.
The defence is part of it. And not just Cowen and Borowiecki. The second pair of Wiercioch and Ceci, which was talked about a lot coming into this season, has been disappointing. Even that top duo of Methot and Karlsson have struggled at times.
A quick fix via the trade market is unlikely. Ottawa did some shopping for defensive help in the off season but all has been quiet on that front lately. They wouldn’t be the only team involved if a legitimate top four defenceman was available. That’s a piece most teams would love to add and it certainly wouldn’t come cheap.
So if a trade isn’t likely, shuffling the pairings a little bit may be the only option.
On that front, playing one of Cowen or Borowiecki instead of both would be a great start. It’s not that Chris Wideman has been lights out in his two games but rather that the Cowen-Borowiecki pairing just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Their games are too similar and they are both natural left defenceman.
Beyond that, it may be time to consider ways to spread out the talent a little bit on the blueline. That could mean trying Methot with Ceci and Wiercioch with Karlsson. Wiercioch certainly hasn’t looked like he’s up to top pairing duties through the first handful of games but maybe he elevates his game a little bit with increased responsibility?
It’s at the very least, worthy of consideration.
It should be noted that the forwards are not completely off the hook either. I’ve been watching closely the last couple games and feel like sometimes, the gap between forwards and defence is a little bigger than usual coming out of their own end. The defence have to make a strong breakout pass but the forwards have to make sure they give them realistic options. Forwards also have to make sure they are coming back to pick up their guy once the puck does end up in the Ottawa zone.
Coaches should also shoulder some of the blame. There is a pretty clear tendency for this team to try to sit on one and two goal leads. Now I don’t for a second think that the Coaches are telling the team to sit back once they have a lead but it’s definitely happening. And that’s something the Coaches need to address.
The good news is the Senators are still in pretty good shape. They’ve been finding ways to win games and have put themselves in a pretty good position in the Eastern Conference. But if this team expects to be in the mix for a playoff spot in April, Dave Cameron and his Coaching staff have to address the shots against and the struggling special teams play and they have to do it in a hurry.
And if Dave Cameron can’t do it, well then maybe Bryan Murray should.
The Senators are on the ice for practice in Nashville at 2:00 PM.
-Close with a non-hockey note but congratulations are in order for two other Ottawa sports teams after a huge weekend for both the Ottawa RedBlacks and the Ottawa Fury. On Saturday, the RedBlacks beat Hamilton in the final game of the regular season, locking up top spot in the East in the process. The RedBlacks will now host the East Final in a couple weeks at TD Place! Pretty tough act to follow for the Ottawa Fury but they came through in a big way, winning their playoff match against Minnesota in extra time. They’ll play New York in the NASL Championship Final next Sunday. Not a bad couple days of sports here in the Nation’s Capital!
