- Senators Face Various Expansion Possibilities

While two teams are apparently still battling it out for the Stanley Cup, the majority of the National Hockey League has turned their attention to the Expansion Draft scheduled for later this month.

The Las Vegas Golden Knights have three players in their organization right now but that number will grow by 30 on June 21^st. And with a little over two weeks until Vegas submits their selections, General Managers are feeling the heat as they try to prepare their rosters for the first expansion draft in 17 years.

All 30 teams must submit their list of protected players by 5:00 PM on June 17^th and those selections will be made public the following day. Vegas will officially reveal their team during the NHL Awards on the 21st but it’s safe to say the roster will likely leak before then.

In Ottawa, Pierre Dorion and his staff have already begun to talk about the various scenarios facing the team heading into expansion. As the Senators General Manager mentioned on a couple of occasions, the organization is going to lose a good player through this process but they’ll be doing their best to minimize the damage to their roster.

For those that haven’t been looking closely at the expansion rules, there are two important things to keep in mind including the rules for protected lists and the team exposure requirements. Each team has to expose at least two forwards that are under contract for 2017-18, and have each played either 40 or more NHL games in 2016-17 or 70 or more NHL games between 2015-16 and 2016-17 and at least one defenceman that meets those same criteria.

In terms of protected players, there are two options. Either a team can protect 7 forwards, 3 defenceman and 1 goalie or 8 skaters and a goalie. In the first scenario you can predict more players obviously but the second allows you the flexibility to protect more defenceman.

The biggest unknown facing the Senators right now is Dion Phaneuf. He has a full no-movement clause which means he’s a player the Senators have to protect. There has been plenty of talk about the possibility of asking Phaneuf to waive that no movement clause to give the team some increased flexibility but it’s a long-shot at this point.

Dorion wouldn’t rule it out but it seems unlikely. The Senators have until June 12th to formally ask Phaneuf if he’s willing to waive.

For the Senators, that means they’ll have to make a difficult decision on the blueline. Either they act quickly and trade a player like Cody Ceci at less than market value or they risk losing Marc Methot to expansion. While there would be teams with interest in Ceci, it’s likely a smaller group of teams prior to expansion because they would not only be giving something up for him but they’d also have to protect him.

Now of course there are no guarantees Vegas actually picks Methot if he is made available. With that said, the playoffs showed just how important a player like Methot really is. If the Senators want to contend again next season, Methot is a player they have to keep.

Regardless of what happens with Phaneuf, it seems inevitable that both Frederik Claesson and Chris Wideman will both be exposed and will likely be of interest to the Golden Knights. Wideman was a player on their radar during the regular season but he tailed off a bit in the playoffs. Meanwhile Claesson took his game to another level in the post-season and at just 24 years of age, his best years are still ahead of him.

One possibility that isn’t getting a ton of attention to this point is the idea of protecting 8 skaters and 1 goalie. Fewer players protected but it would allow them to make sure they don’t lose a top four defenceman. In that scenario, the Senators are exposing more forwards which could then mean someone like Jean Gabriel Pageau, Zack Smith or Ryan Dzingel could be selected.

No matter how it all plays out in the next couple weeks, it seems clear the Senators are going to lose a good player, and most likely a defenceman.

Up front, four of the protected guys are slam dunks. Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Derick Brassard will all be protected. If they go with the 7-3-1 option, they would likely protect Jean Gabriel Pageau, Zack Smith and Ryan Dzingel. That leaves Bobby Ryan exposed but with the remaining dollars and term on his deal, there’s no real risk of Vegas taking him.

Of course if Dorion and his staff are worried about that possibility, they could protect Ryan but only if they sign someone else that meets the exposure requirements first. Right now, Alex Burrows and Zack Smith are the only other forwards that meets those requirements.

And while the Senators could leave it all up to chance, they may also want to talk to Vegas GM George McPhee to work out a side deal so that they have additional say in which player they lose to Vegas. There has been some speculation about that possibility already where the Senators ask Vegas to take a particular player, like say Chris Wideman, and in exchange they give Vegas something extra (a pick or prospect).

With just 12 days left, the clock is ticking for Pierre Dorion and the Ottawa Senators. Losing a player is inevitable but it will be up to Dorion to minimize the damage to the roster.

For those of you that haven’t already, head on over to Cap Friendly and try out their handy little expansion draft tool.