More than two months after the National Hockey League went on pause, we finally have an idea of what a return to play could look like.
The timelines are still a little murky but yesterday, Commissioner Gary Bettman laid out the league’s detailed plans to complete the 2019/2020 season. It’s unlike anything the NHL has seen before and it’s an ambitious effort to try to find some sense of normalcy during these uncertain times.
While many of the details have been speculated on for weeks now, yesterday we finally got to hear it from the Commish.
A 24-team tournament played in empty arenas. Four teams with byes in each conference. A preliminary play-in round where the next eight teams in both the East and the West have an opportunity to win their way into the post-season.
Oh and a Stanley Cup handed out at the end of it.
It’s strange. It’s messy. But it’s hockey, damn it. Or it might be if they can sort out the rest of the details.
Lost in the excitement over yesterday’s announcement is the fact that there are still endless logistical hurdles to be overcome here. None of the major professional sports have been able to execute a return to play under these unique global circumstances and it’s easy to see why.
Keeping the players and their families safe is going to be the priority throughout but as we saw in the comments from Minnesota Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk, there are serious questions about how the league can pull that off.
Negotiations for another day.
Of course the big news from Ottawa’s perspective came in the form of details on the Draft Lottery and the Draft itself.
After a lot of speculation and various scenarios being leaked along the way, the league landed on something pretty similar to where they started. Only with the added wrinkle of not knowing who eight of the 15 teams in the lottery are until a later date.
The Senators find themselves in a pretty similar situation as they were in before the pause. They still have the best chance at the first overall pick with a 25% chance. They still have a best-case scenario of 1st and 2nd overall with a worst-case scenario of 5th and 6th. They still own the Islanders first round pick at undetermined spot that could be as high as 13th (I think?) depending on how the play-in round shakes out. And they still have a ton of draft capital to work with should they want to move around.
And while there was plenty of frustration with yesterday’s announcement, it has more to do with who can beat Ottawa in the lottery rather than Ottawa’s specific situation.
As much as I want to scream and yell and call the concept “unfair”, I actually think the league has landed on an appropriate format that manages to address most of the major concerns. Any frustration I’m feeling is mostly because of the other ideas we were teased with along the way.
First, they maintain something close to the original format in terms of percentages for the bottom-tier teams. This was probably the most important thing in all of this. Completely overhauling the system at the expense of the teams that are supposed to benefit from the lottery wouldn’t make a ton of sense. And returning to the old format, for no real reason, burned basically everyone other than Detroit and Ottawa.
Second, they’ve ensured no dual winner, as in a team winning the lottery and the Stanley Cup. This was one of the first issues raised by General Managers and by waiting to determine eight of the lottery teams, they have avoided the unlikely albeit possible embarrassment of having someone win both.
Third, they’ve managed to address the concerns of organizations being shoehorned into the 24-team format that under normal circumstances, would probably have preferred a lottery shot over a post-season opportunity. Because in all honesty, if you had asked me if I would trade in one of Ottawa’s lottery picks or even if I would decrease our odds in exchange for a spot in this weird return to play, I wouldn’t even consider it. At the same time, the league has thrown a bone to those middle-tier teams that can now potentially be upset by a non-playoff team in a random play-in round. It’s unlikely they get anything but it’s something.
Lastly, they’ve come up with a format that maintains some sense of fairness but is also going to be incredibly entertaining. Everyone is going to be tuned in on June 26th and 23 teams and their fans are going to have a ticket in the draw. It’s weird, it’s different and it’s completely appropriate for the situation.
From an Ottawa perspective, we were always going to be in a situation where we had to have some luck on our side on lottery day. That hasn’t changed. The idea of losing out to a mysterious empty arena play-in tournament loser is unsettling for sure but no more than losing to any other team. And because Ottawa has those seven picks in the first two rounds, even their worst-case scenario is franchise-altering.
So now, after two months of waiting, we go back to…waiting.
In less than 30 days, the biggest moment in the history of the franchise.
Tick….tock.
