Craig Smith from Hockey Prospectus is back with his highly anticipated review of the players selected by the Ottawa Senators in this year’s Entry Draft. While a couple of the picks seems like slam dunks, others are a little less known. Craig works as an OHL and QMJHL expert over at Hockey Prospectus and is a wealth of knowledge when it comes to this year’s prospects. For those of you that missed it, Craig also put together a great preview prior to the Draft. You can follow Craig on Twitter @Red_Vikreig. A huge thanks to Craig for taking the time to share his expertise here over the last few weeks!
Development camp has wrapped up and the the Ottawa Senators have made roster moves to in order to create opportunities for the next wave of players. Early feedback on the 2015 NHL draft selections for the Senators has been very positive. Bryan Murray worked the draft well in order to get the players they targeted without reaching too much. The Senators have received several A grades from different hockey writers.
Mock drafts around the world were destroyed early on thanks in most part to the Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins. It is safe to assume the Senators did not think they would have such a difficult decision to make at picks 18 and 21. The opportunity to trade down was presented, but the Murray and staff felt the talent available was too good.
When referencing back to the Senators draft preview, all three wish list players, Evgeny Svechnikov, Travis Konecny, and Nicholas Merkley were available at picks 18 and 32. The Senators have not drafted a player under 6’0 tall since Tim Murray has departed for the Buffalo Sabres. That could explain the decision to pass on Konecny and Merkley. Murray and staffs poor history with Russian born players could be the reasoning behind passing on Svechnikov. NHL scouts and GM’s tend to have some tendencies when drafting players. Ryan Wagman over at Hockey Prospectus did a fantastic series of articles; What to Expect when your Drafting, on the topic of draft tendencies. Many held true during this years draft.
So who did the Ottawa Senators select ? How long until these newly drafted players potential play in the NHL or will they ever play in the NHL ? Lets find out,
Thomas Chabot
ROUND 1 PICK 18
Team: Saint John Sea Dogs
Position: Defence
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.02 / 180
Season Stats
Games Played: 66
Goals: 12
Assists: 29
Points: 41
PIMS: 62
The NHL is changing, with puck movement and player mobility now at a preimum. The Ottawa Senators have added another defensemen who is ideal for the new game. This is different from when the Senators selected Brian Lee ninth overall in 2005 and then general manager John Muckler talked about the requirement for puck moving defencemen.
Smooth skater and great passer are traits handed out often in draft profiles, maybe overused. Thomas Chabot has these characteristics as did Brian Lee. The difference in the individual players success is how the characteristics are applied. Chabot is patient and methodical in his approach. One can almost see him processing each players position on the ice and analyzing/predicting what is coming next. Lee panicked in situations when carrying or retrieving the puck unaware of his surroundings. Thomas Chabot has top tier decision making skills and some of the best anticipation plays that were seen during the 2014-2015 QMJHL season. His shot is average, added strength may help Chabot’s shot improve. If not Chabot typically does not shoot to score anyways. Looks to create havoc by getting the puck on net and hoping for a deflection or rebound.
Chabot will most likely never win a Norris trophy, score 20 goals, or be a top flight point producing defensemen. Think of Jay Bouwmeester post Florida Panthers type of player. 25 plus minuets of ice time against other teams top units is more than acceptable for any pick in any draft. Closer to home comparison, he will have similar production and value as Cody Ceci.
This is a home run pick. It would not come as a surprise if Chabot is the second best defensemen from this class in five years. The Senators should be very excited to have a player who will be able to slot in next to Ceci or Erik Karlsson as early as the 2016 – 2017 season.
Colin White
ROUND 1 PICK 21
Team: USA National Development Program
Position: Centre
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.00 / 183
Season Stats
Games Played: 20
Goals: 4
Assists: 13
Points: 17
PIMS: 10
The problem that arises in Canada when a team selects a USHL or European player over the highly successful and highly ranked Captain of the local junior team is that it may come with some backlash and question marks. For perspective imagine if Curtis Lazar played in the USHL and Colin White played for the Edmonton Oil Kings. Sens fans would have White penciled in as the untouchable future Captain and Lazar as the underwhelming player selection who was selected instead of Travis Konecny.
Lazar and White have similar futures fated to them in the NHL. Both players have limited offensive upside, but have elite hockey sense and will be trusted to play important minuets shutting down top scoring units on opposing teams from day one. Colin White has received comparisons to Patrice Bergeron which is unfair and almost unattainable. He has also been compared to Derek Stepan, all though Stepan’s offensive upside is higher than that of White. Lazar is probably the best player to look at for White’s role with the Senators.
A smart two-way centre who will play a third line centre role in the NHL which in today’s league is a very important piece of a championship roster. If White been healthy last season with the USNDP he would have had a chance at making the Senators in the upcoming season, that is how high White’s hockey I.Q is. If you search YouTube for Colin White highlights a very small amount of options will come up. This is not a flashy dangler or speed demon. White’s shot will never be amongst the best on the team. It’s an average shot that is accurate but will not beat many NHL goalies without some traffic or without being in a high danger area. Good hands allow White to carry the puck and get past most stick checks. White is smart enough to know when to move the puck or when to try and beat defenders.
After time White grows and grows on anyone watching him play He always seems to be involved and have a positive impact when on the ice. White will have a permanent spot on the advanced stats love list for years to come. As a somewhat controversial 21st pick White will eventually have Sens fans walking into Canadian Tire Place with Colin White jerseys on their backs. This is a player who plays “the game the right way”. Sens fans love their role players. Colin White will be a very good one. It just takes time to realize it.
Gabriel Gagne
ROUND 2 PICK 36
Team: Victoriaville Tigers
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.05 / 186
Season Stats
Games Played: 67
Goals: 35
Assists: 24
Points: 59
PIMS: 39
The one player that may be considered a reach for the Senators is Gabriel Gagne. Ranked in the 90s by some scouting services and even unranked by others Gagne is an interesting project player. A massive frame that could easily hold another 25 to 30 pounds. Skates much faster than most. Accelerates at an exceptional rate. This is a 6’5 version of Mike Hoffman.
Gagne is very similar to Hoffman in many matters. A very very good shot. Quick release and high velocity make Gagne’s shot lethal. He is also not afraid to shoot. Gagne finished in the top 20 for shots on goal in the QMJHL this season. The biggest concern in his game is his compete level. An unwillingness to engage defensively is a likely cause of such a spread in his draft ranking. Gagne has another trait shared by a Senator player. He and Patrick Wiercioch share one that bothers Sens fans, a lack of physicality. It can be frustrating to see a player of Gagne’s size shy away from physical play.
It will take four or five years for Gagne to arrive at the NHL full time. Unless strength and defensive awareness is added Gagne may have a difficult time sticking as a full time NHL player. Gagne’s a project player that will either score 20-25 goals per season or miss out on playing in the league altogether.
Filip Chlapik
ROUND 2 PICK 48
Team: Charlottetown Islanders
Position: Centre
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.01 / 196
Season Stats
Games Played: 64
Goals: 33
Assists: 42
Points: 75
PIMS: 42
Playing with Daniel Sprong made extra looks at Filip Chlapik necessary. Sprong’s dynamic offensive gifts and top level production created questions about Chlapik’s overall numbers. Were they a result of playing with Sprong or was Chlapik able to create his own offence ? The answer, Chlapik is more than capable of running the offence. Brad Richards had significantly higher numbers in junior than Chlapik but there are many things that the two players have in common.
Chlapik will not translate into a big goal scorer in the NHL. He has an accurate shot with a good release, but lacks velocity to beat goalies. Chlapik plays the left side point on the Islanders powerplay, similar to Richards during periods of his career. Chlapik is a good skater who is able to beat defenders wide or with a nice deke. This Czech standout biggest strength is in puck distribution. Has fantastic touch on the puck and finds unseen lanes to give his line mates glorious scoring chances. His overall strength, even at 196 pounds is poor. Chlapik is easily knocked off the puck and often ends up on the ice.
Chlapik’s defensive play is either very good or non existent. When back checking with effort he is effective at disrupting the opposing team’s zone entries. Once in the defensive zone he positions himself well and reads the play quickly. The down side is that on occasion Chlapik can be lazy when coming back. If he is far behind the play with little chance of breaking up the attack he doesn’t show up in the defensive zone for seconds after his teammates. Hopefully for the Senators, Chlapik realizes that a slight let up in effort can place the team’s leading goal scorer on the fourth line and plays strong defence at all times.
Chlapik will have to find a role on the wing if he wants to play for the Ottawa Senators in the next four years. With Kyle Turris, Curtis Lazar, Mika Zibanejad, Colin White, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau in the mix ice time at the centre position will not becoming available. Chlapik will fit in nicely with the young core of shooters that the Senators are developing.
Christian Wolanin
ROUND 4 PICK 107
Team: Muskegon Lumberjacks
Position: Defence
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.01 / 185
Season Stats
Games Played: 56
Goals: 14
Assists: 27
Points: 41
PIMS: 107
Christian Wolanin is the son of former third overall pick Craig Wolanin. So if NHL pedigree is something that provides an edge, Wolanin gets an extra point.
During the draft several of the draft analysts were stunned and at a loss for words when Wolanin was announced as the pick. Wolanin was an overaged player who few were familiar with. Most draft guides had him unranked. The Senators are hoping that an increase of nine goals and 20 points overall from last season are a sign that the former forward turned defenceman has gained and understanding of the position. Wolanin was drafted by the Green Bay Gamblers as forward and immediately transferred to the defensive position. By selecting the Lumberjack’s captain the Senators have added another character player into the organization.
Offensively minded, Wolanin likes to control the puck. He has a big shot from the point and runs the Lumberjacks powerplay. An aggressive offensive style sees Wolanin often jumping up into the play as an extra attacker. On occasion his pinches are poorly timed and result in odd man rushes in the wrong direction. He is very similar to Patrick Wiercioch when passing out of the defensive zone. Often makes simple effective passes that carry little to no risk. Occasional wow passes occur when the opportunity arises. Time with Luke Richardson in Binghamton should help Wolanin understand the risk reward element of his game much better. Pivoting and transitional skating require significant improvement before Wolanin will see any NHL game action.
A long shot to see full time NHL hockey Wolanin may need a similar path as Chris Wideman to achieve an NHL career. Like Wideman it will be difficult for Wolanin to be a Senator in Ottawa, not just Binghamton.
Filip Ahl
ROUND 4 PICK 109
Team: HV71 Jonkoping
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6.04 / 211
Season Stats
Games Played: 15
Goals: 0
Assists: 2
Points: 2
PIMS: 2
The Senators did not know if they were making a selection at 109. After a draft day trade the New Jersey Devils opted to use the Senators 2016 fourth round pick instead of selecting in this position.
Offensive stats are difficult to come by for underage players in the elite leagues. Do not be fooled by the goose egg in goals. Younger players see third and fourth line minuets. They rarely see power play time either. During the Swedish junior season Filip Ahl scored 20 goals in 34 games, he also added 22 assists to finish with 42 points.
Filip Ahl is a very large and strong player who doesn’t always take full advantage of his size. His below average speed is concerning and he needs to use his size needs to compensate for that. Unless Ahl takes the Appollo Creed training program for foot speed he will need to learn how to lean on opposing players and dominate with body positioning. He has good hands and above average lateral movement. He can beat defenders and drive to the net. His slap shot is extremely hard, but very wild. His snap shot is below average in release and accuracy.
Poor speed and a large frame that does not get used is a recipe that will not receive well in the NHL. A major change in multiple elements of Ahl’s game will be needed to crack an NHL roster.
Christian Jaros
ROUND 5 PICK 139
Team: Lulea HF & Asploven HC
Position: Defence
Shoots: Right
Height/Weight: 6.03 / 201
Season Stats
Games Played: 31
Goals: 0
Assists: 2
Points: 2
PIMS: 6
Christian Jaros is described by many as “a giant pain in the rear”. Jaros is aware of his expectations and limitations as a player. He will not score goals, but he will show up on the morning highlights for dishing out bone crushing hits.. A physical player who plays with an intensity that rivals Mark Borowiecki’s. Jaros may not be as wiling to drop the gloves and fight but he will not back down. During the development camp Jaros got into a scuffle with the big Ben Harpur. Showing that level of intensity at an exhibition style camp shows that Jaros will work harder than others to win.
A capable skater who can move the puck up ice using simple, easy passes. He is not going to win races to loose pucks in the corner but he will make sure that players are hesitant to go into that corner and retrieve the puck. Jaros does have a big, heavy shot from the point if given the space and time to release it. He can and does allow attacking players to get past him on an open ice one versus one.
Jaros is a safe player, the organization knows what they are getting. Whether it ‘s as a 6-7 defenceman or a leader in the AHL, Jaros is the type of player that will set a high standard of work ethic for other players to match.
Joel Daccord
ROUND 7 PICK 199
Team: Cushing Academy
Position: Goalie
Shoots: Right
Catches: Left
Height/Weight: 6.03 / 201
Season Stats
Not Available.
Joel Daccord is committed to playing at Arizona State University for the upcoming season. Senators have taken a liking to NCAA goalies recently with Matt O’Connor and Andrew Hammond now in the fold. Daccord’s father is a goaltending coach and founder of Stop It Goaltending. Being the son of a coach is always a positive. Coaches sons typically have a better understanding of position fundamentals and this is the case with Daccord.
Daccord is a very good if not an elite level athlete. He moves laterally quickly and has good recovery skills. He positions himself correctly and tracks puck very well. Daccord handles the puck very well for a goaltender. One play saw Daccord use a shoulder fake to force a forechecker into the wrong direction. He then made a back hand outlet pass to his defenceman.
Late round goalies showing up in the NHL is not uncommon. Development is key and often a lengthy process with goalies. Daccord has a good chance of becoming a part of the Senators goaltending plan going forward. Craig Anderson likely is in his final two seasons with the team, Andrew Hammond will have a career as a good back up goalie, while Matt O’Connor and Marcus Holberg will battle for the future starting position. Daccord will be ready at that time for an opportunity to play in Binghamton.
