Two more sleeps.
Over the course of the last two weeks, we really got into a routine of a game every second night. Sure it was stressful and likely took years off my life but it was nice to know there was another game in the not too distant future.
This three day break has been a bit of a grind. It beats the hell out of the 170 day break the other eight playoff teams are facing but still- we need more playoffs!
Two more sleeps.
As we get set for Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs, a breakdown of how the Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers match up on paper and of course, a series prediction.
FORWARDS
This New York Rangers team presents an entirely different challenge than what the Senators saw in Round 1. The Bruins had one of the best lines in the league while the Rangers roll four lines that can score. At last check, they had a 27-goal scorer (Grabner) playing on their fourth line. The Rangers are deep and fast. Meanwhile Ottawa’s forward lines look a whole lot more dangerous than they did heading into the playoffs, with both Bobby Ryan and Derick Brassard getting hot at the same time and Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Jean Gabriel Pageau and Clarke MacArthur all getting on the board late in the series. Rangers have a little more depth but Ottawa’s high-end guys are a little more dangerous. The Rangers had the 4th ranked offence during the regular season while Ottawa finished 22nd but the Senators didn’t have this kind of offensive depth from October to early-April. Call it a draw.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
DEFENCE
Defence is a tricky one because obviously it’s about more than the 6-8 defenceman you have at your disposal. Teams defend as five man units and Ottawa does that as well as anyone, even though the personnel may not seem like world-beaters. Meanwhile this Rangers group also looks fairly thin on paper and at times, they played like it in the first round. Of all the first round series, the Rangers/Canadiens series had the biggest different in scoring chances and in Montreal’s favour. The Senators did a great job of containing the Bruins and limiting their chances, despite regular season data suggesting the Bruins could potentially run wild on the Senators. This one is close but in the end, how can you not side with the group that has Erik Karlsson playing half of every game? He’s found another level in these playoffs and it’s enough to give Ottawa an edge.
ADVANTAGE: OTTAWA
SPECIAL TEAMS
This may come as a surprise to some but Ottawa clearly has the “hotter” power play heading into this series. Shocking considering how much talk there was about Ottawa’s struggles on the power play leading up to the playoffs and throughout the first round. The Senators converted on 21.7% of their chances with the man advantage in the first round while the Rangers sat dead last with a 6.7% success rate. The Rangers killed off 85% of power plays in Round One compared to 81.3% for Ottawa. Pretty similar. New York definitely had a better power play in the regular season but they come into this series ice cold (1 for 15 in Round One). Again, this one is close but I give Ottawa the slightest edge on the basis of how they performed over the last couple weeks.
ADVANTAGE: OTTAWA
GOALTENDING
Two weeks ago I would have called this category even but it’s hard to deny what Henrik Lundqvist was able to accomplish in the first six games of the playoffs. He’s the biggest reason the Rangers are still playing right now. His .947 save percentage and 1.70 GAA are both eye-catching and he did some of his best work later in the series, allowing just four goals over the final three games. Craig Anderson had a couple hiccups during the first round but his .921 save percentage and 1.94 GAA are more than adequate. He also made big stops when his team needed them most throughout the series, which is so important at playoff time. This one is close again but I give a slight edge to the guy who just single-handedly stole a series for his team.
ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK
COACHING
Obviously both Guy Boucher and Alain Vigneault are good coaches because really, you don’t get to the final eight otherwise. Vigneault, who got his start in the NHL with the Ottawa Senators way back in 1992-93, has done a good job with this Rangers team. He has his critics among New York fans and it primarily has to do with an over-reliance on the wrong defenceman, namely Dan Girardi. Guy Boucher has some similar critics and for similar reasons. With that said these guys both know what they’re doing. In both instances, they went into the opening round of the playoffs as slight underdogs but came up with game plans to overcome the odds. I thought what Guy Boucher and his staff were able to do in the opening round is a little more impressive but it’s too close to call.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
INTANGIBLES
Despite finishing with a lower point total during the regular season, the Senators get home ice advantage for a second straight series. That’s certainly a benefit on paper but maybe not as much in this series considering the Senators won all three road games in the opening round and the Rangers come in with the league’s best road record at 27-12-2. Not sure if the idea of a system fits into this intangibles category but between the two first round series, I really thought Ottawa did a better job controlling the tempo of the game. They dictated the pace in a series where many of the experts expected the complete opposite. This series is going to be incredibly tight and I like that the Senators have experience in those kind of games, including six of them in the first round, four of which ended in overtime. Also, is a soul intangible? Because this Ottawa team certainly has one of those.
ADVANTAGE: OTTAWA
PREDICTION
The Senators were dismissed by many experts in the first round because the Bruins had a clear advantage in many of the advanced stats. Now the Sens seem to have a slight edge in most of the underlying numbers but the overwhelming majority of the experts are siding with the Rangers. That’s fine. The underdog role seems to suit the Senators. This series is going to be close. Not sure if it’s possible to be closer than Sens/Bruins but it’s going to be tight. The Senators and their new found depth in the top three lines appear to have a slight edge over the four lines the Rangers will role. Lundqvist is playing a little bit better than Anderson but Ottawa seems to have a slight edge on special teams. There’s just no obvious edge for either team. Well, except maybe one. The Ottawa Senators have Erik Karlsson. Considering what we saw from him on a broken foot in Round One, it’s crazy to think what he might be capable of is he’s fully healthy. A close series but I’ll take the team with home ice advantage and one of the best player’s on the planet.
PREDICTION- OTTAWA SENATORS IN 7 GAMES
ROUND TWO SCHEDULE
Game #1- Thursday, April 27th at 7 p.m. at Canadian Tire Centre
Game #2- Saturday, April 29th at 3 p.m. at Canadian Tire Centre
Game #3- Tuesday, May 2nd at 7 p.m. at Madison Square Garden
Game #4- Thursday, May 4th at 7:30 p.m. at Madison Square Garden
Game #5- Saturday, May 6th at TBD at Canadian Tire Centre
Game #6- Tuesday, May 9th at TBD at Madison Square Garden
Game #7- Thursday, May 11th at TBD at Canadian Tire Centre
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