WRITTEN BY- Hax
Before I get into it, let me say that I personally don’t believe the Senators will have another miracle run and make the playoffs in 2018. I’ve made my peace with it.
But the concept isn’t as far-fetched as some might have you believe. I’ve seen some over-the-top projections of what sort of record it would take etc. and thought I would share some numbers with everyone to help keep things in perspective. For those fans that like to hold onto hope as long as they can, read on.
How many points might it take?
I’ve seen some predictions as high as 97 points (Mendes) with most settling around 94 as the reasonable minimum to make the playoffs in the East. Since the NHL started using shootouts in 2005-06, no team has ever missed the playoffs with 97 points. So, sure, that’s the number to essentially guarantee a spot. Over those 12 seasons, only three teams have ever had 94 points (or more) and missed the playoffs. Boston had 96 points in 2014-15 and the Islanders and Lightning both missed last year with 94 points. Under the current system, the average point total for the bottom seed in the East has been 93 points.
But wait, as of the end of play January 15 2018, the projected 8th seed in the East is on pace for about 91 points. And the projected 7th seed could have 91 as well.
“On pace for” doesn’t sit well with some folks. “What about all those games late in the year where both teams try to carry the game to OT to secure at least a point?”
The chart below shows the final point total for the bottom seed(s) in the East for the past 12 years. It also shows the projected points needed to make the playoffs as of January 15 each year (i.e. same formula that predicts that total to be 91 this season).
Over the past 12 seasons, the “extra points” beyond the projection has averaged out to just over 3 points. If you toss out the zany 07-08 season it’s much closer to 2 additional points however. And over the last three seasons the projection is very close to a single extra point that the final seed can expect to pick up in the last half of the season (over projected). So while teams do seem to push at the end of the year (3-point games, playoff contenders loading up, tankers tanking etc.) the impact is not much more than an extra point in recent years.
It seems reasonable to expect that 93 or even 92 points might get it done this year. To get to 92 points, the Senators would need 53 points in their final 40 games.
As a comparison, during the 2015 “Hamburglar Run” the Senators picked up 57 points in their final 40 games (26-9-5). Note the run that year didn’t start until there were 31 games left in the season – 50 of the 57 points came in those games. But there is a reason they called that run a “miracle”.
A record of 24-11-5 for 53 points may look somewhat achievable, but note that in the East, only Tampa Bay, Washington and Boston had 53 points through their first 40 games this year. New Jersey came close with 51. Matching the play of those four teams for the rest of the season seems to be a tall order.
Last year (with a very similar – yet overachieving – roster) the Senators collected 48 points in their final 40 games, going 21-13-6. Is that more reasonable? That pace could still be hard to match but it does seem possible. Of course 87 points has never been enough to make the playoffs since the shootout was added, so 48 more won’t cut it. Even if they can match that pace, they’d need to knock off six straight wins BEFORE they settle into that 1.2 points-per-game pace if they want to hit 92.
But wait, the Senators are 3-1-1 in their last five games! If they can keep that up they could get another 56 points and finish with 95! That’s not likely of course and even keeping up that torrid pace doesn’t leave much room for error.
Another option to test the loyalties of even the most diehard fan is that the Sens could continue to muddle along at their current pace until mid-March. If they find themselves with 64 points after 68 games through March 12th, they’d just need to win the last 14 games of the year to reach 92 points.
So there are things to cling too if you want to hold onto hope until the bitter end. Never say never and all that. A team that has Erik Kalrsson and is not yet mathematically eliminated always has a chance. But it’s going to take something very special to happen, very soon.
And then there are the seven teams we’d have to pass on the way up the standings.
Go Sens Go
(All stats from NHL.com – math errors, if any, are all mine.)
