No hockey prognosticator would dare predict the start of the 2016 NHL regular season, in which the Sens earned a 5-4 overtime win against the Leafs. Collecting two points was a great way to start a campaign which has the potential to upset the pre-season opinions of pundits around the league. As many as nine out of the following ten bold predictions may come true, altering Ottawa Senators betting lines, which are partly based on pessimism against the Sens.
#1- Corsi Stats Remain Under League Average
Teams which finish the regular season with solid Corsi numbers tend to make the playoffs, and Pittsburgh finished second in Corsi For Percentage during their 2016 Stanley Cup win, showing a strong correlation between Corsi stats and winning. Last season, Ottawa was 24th in CF% while finishing third last in Corsi Against per sixty minutes, suggesting a large imbalance between offensive and defensive play. Trading Zibanejad for Brassard, a centre with lesser Corsi stats despite starting 58.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone, looks to be one of several roster issues that will negatively affect CF% during the 2016-17 season. (Editor’s Note- Looks like Keith did his homework!)
#2 – Sens Fight For The Playoffs All Year
Not all is bad for Guy Boucher’s Sens, as their depth of offensive talent will keep them in the eastern conference playoff hunt throughout the year. Corsi numbers aside, this lineup has the ability to punch holes in top NHL defences using speed and a balanced attack facilitated mostly through the genius of Erik Karlsson. The finishing skill that the Senators possess resulted in the third highest team shooting percentage in the NHL, boosting them into the top ten for goals per game during the 2015-16 regular season. These Sens will compete and entertain in 2016-17, mixing brilliant offence with frustrating defensive lapses. (Editor’s Note- Well duh)
#3 – Hamburglar Steals The Crease
There’s no argument when comparing the amount of experience Craig Anderson holds over Andrew Hammond, but all the signposts point to Hammond getting another shot at controlling the crease. Anderson has had a few solid years in the past, but the number of off years he’s experienced with the Sens tests the patience of Sens Nation. Also, it’s tough to forget Hammond’s incredible 20-1-2 streak that lifted Ottawa to an unlikely playoff appearance in 2015, whipping up a frenzy that made Curtis Lazar eat a sketchy ice rink burger. (Editor’s Note- Nahhhhhhhhhhhhhh)
#4 – Defense Recesses While Power Play Rank Jumps Ten Spots
The bleak defensive numbers from 2015-16 can’t be ignored, including a penalty kill that finished second last and a 2.94 goals against average that was 26the in the league. Oddly enough, the Senators power play also tanked, finishing 26th in the NHL. On the bright side, the Sens power play should recover to the middle of the pack and the penalty killing can’t get worse… probably. Ottawa will get by on an improved offense at the expense of defence, with the return of the Hamburglar, not defensive play, reducing goals against totals. (Editor’s Note- I’m confused)
#5 – The Most Sublime Season of Karlsson’s Career
There’s a chance Karlsson will defend a bit better this year, but the Senators will end up lean on his offensive abilities more than ever. At the age of 26, he’s in his peak prime years. He’s also among the very few defencemen who act as a focal point for their offence, a select list that includes names like Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Denis Potvin, Brian Leetch and Paul Coffey. He’ll be the first defenceman since Bourque in 1994 to earn more than 89 points. (Editor’s Note- More people need to use the word sublime)
#6 – Mark, Mike, Bobby and Kyle Earn At Least 60 Points
Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Kyle Turris will be the main beneficiaries of Erik Karlsson’s banner year. Assuming a clean bill of health, these four should be able to break the sixty-point barrier, with Hoffman and Ryan potentially hitting 30 goals and 70 points. The Sens will ice two thirty-goal forwards during the 2016-17 regular season. (Editor’s Note- Sure, I’ll buy it)
#7 – Offensive Production Doesn’t Save Turris from Vegas
By some standards, Kyle Turris and his $3.5 million cap hit represent a reasonable value considering the role he plays. However, the recent trade for Brassard and Ottawa’s need for a more defensive-minded centre will make Kyle a strong candidate to remain unprotected for the expansion draft. Unless Turris vastly improves his defence, he’s looking at a potential move to Vegas, even if he manages to earn 60 points. Management will seek to invest his cap hit elsewhere in 2017. (Editor’s Note- Nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh)
#8 – Ottawa Gets Clobbered By the West Coast
Ottawa started the 2015 season with a strong road record for the first couple of months before descending into a losing road record for the rest of the campaign. Contrary to expectations, more than half of the Sens’ road wins were against western conference teams, a trend that’s unlikely to continue. In fact, the strong defensive style of western conference contenders will stymie Ottawa’s offence on the road, siphoning points from the playoff push. This will force the Senators to up their game against eastern conference rivals. (Editor’s Note- Bold because the Senators have dominated the Western Conference so far this year, 1-0-0)
#9 – Karlsson Leads The League In Giveaways
Karlsson finished fifth in giveaways with a total of 96 during the 2015-16 season, averaging 1.17 per game. Given the prediction that he will earn at least 90 points this season, he’ll challenge for the league lead in giveaways due to his massive role in keeping the Senators afloat. Of the four players above him last year – Drew Doughty, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns and P.K. Subban – only Subban will challenge for the giveaway title. No need to fret: hockey stat analysts point out that large giveaway numbers suggests that a player tends to control possession more often than opponents, which is a good thing. (Editor’s Note- Nahhhhhhhhhhhh)
#10 – Sens Trade Anderson To Leafs For Andersen
Seconds before the trade deadline, goalies Anderson and Andersen will be the victim of a fax error, resulting in what will be referred to as the “Homonym Trade” in NHL lore. Careless use of spell check and auto-correct will be the genesis of this fiasco, causing several laptops and smartphones to lose their jobs. Pierre Dorion accepts a neural implant that melds his mind with the Ottawa Senators database, and eventually the internet, in an effort to augment the front office after the deal goes through. Ottawa attempts, but fails, to force Pierre offline when he defends the trade by quipping, “we finally put the ‘Sen’ in Anderson.” CyberDorion proceeds to sign Bill Muckalt to a $20 million, five-year contract with a no-movement clause. (Editor’s Note- Pardon?)
