WRITTEN BY- KarlssonFan
KarlssonFan back again with the defensemen/goalie/staff grades. Same thing as last time, but here’s a recap of my grading criteria:
-Performance relative to expectation: Karlsson and Boro have vastly different roles and expectations, so it’s not fair to automatically fail Boro because he doesn’t compare to our glorious captain. This WILL include expectations based on salary and expectations based on contract extensions/signings/trades.
-Performance relative to 2016/17: We’ll see how players compare to last season, to see if they’ve improved or declined, or if their performance is relatively stable.
-Performance relative to other players: How well a player is performing well compared to the rest of the team or players around the league.
I’ll just jump right into it:
DEFENCE
Ben Harpur
He’s about as “meh” as a fringe-bottom-pairing D can get. 0 offensive contribution, bad 5v5 stats, meh PK numbers in limited time (about 34min). In a perfect world, he’s in the AHL, but I don’t really mind him as the 7th D. He has no business anywhere near EK or even the 2nd pair, though. Min NHL salary, no term, no expectations…I don’t expect him to get more than a 2-year, 2-way deal. For some, he had heightened expectations after a few good games last season, but he’s a depth option, not a regular NHL D.
Grade: C
Christian Jaros
He has played 14 total minutes this season, so I really have nothing to say.
Grade: C
Chris Wideman
Quick, who has the highest 5v5 p/60 on the Sens this season? You probably all guessed “Wideman”, because why else would I ask that here. Sadly, only 1 of his 6 5v5 points is primary, but it’s a neat stat anyway. Very good stats at 5v5, pretty high individual shot attempts which is always nice for a D, leads Sens defensemen in powerplay goals (with two). It’s too bad he’s been injured, because he was making our 3rd pair…dare I say it…good. He actually did very well with Phaneuf (I think I said something last year maybe once or twice about swapping Wideman and Ceci, maybe, not quite sure). Makes 800k, pending UFA; we could do much, much worse on the bottom pair than Wideman.
Grade: A-
Cody Ceci
Quick, who is tied with JGP for 8th-most 5v5 goals this season? That doesn’t seem impressive…but it actually is. His 4 5v5 goals are more than Turris (3 including his NSH games), Smith (3), and Karlsson (1). It’s also more than Thompson, Burrows, and Dumont combined (1+1+1=3). It’s too bad he has struggled at everything else. 5v5 P1/60 is 3rd last on our team. Per 60 minutes of PK time, we allow 23.08 more shot attempts with Ceci than without him. The next worst Senator D is Phaneuf, at 7. For unblocked attempts against, he’s at 16.86, next worse is 3.92. For shots, he’s at 12.8, next worse is 4.86. For expected goals against, he’s actually only 2nd worst. Oh yeah and he also has 40 more PK minutes than any other D on the team. Also, his 5v5 numbers aren’t great. Also, he’s our 3rd-highest paid D. Also, I’m going to burn a cardboard cutout of Dorion when he signs Ceci to a 5-year deal. Look, I know that Ceci didn’t ask to be the 2nd-most used D on the team, but it’s truly amazing how badly he has failed at the jobs he’s been given. He’s somehow outdone his very bad performance from last year. (Also, don’t tell me about “high competition”; I checked, and the difference between him and the easiest-usage D (Wideman) is 6% based on TOI and 2% based on CF%–and he is only 3rd among D for CF%QoC anyway. For comparison, he is 30% worse than the best xGF% player, and 20% worse than the best CF% player).
Grade: F
Dion Phaneuf
Phaneuf is what happens when you give Cody Ceci a 7×7 contract. At least Phaneuf can say “well I had a few good years back in my day”. Ceci cannot say that. Today, however, Phaneuf is very bad. He and Ceci form the actual worst 2nd pair in the NHL. And they cost $10.35M in salary, $9.8M in cap hit. At least Phaneuf has contributed offensively a bit; his 5v5 P1/60 is more than double Ceci’s. He isn’t very good on the PP but gets tons of minutes anyway, isn’t great on the PK but gets tons of minutes anyway, and isn’t good at 5v5 but gets tons of minutes anyway. Contract is absurd and immovable.
Grade: F
Erik Karlsson
Karlsson is struggling at a couple of things this season compared to last: production (both 5v5 and PP), and PK. His 5v5 production is down 12%, PP down 16%. But his PK numbers are the scariest. His CA/60 is down 7%, FA/60 down 14%, SA/60 down 25%, xGA/60 down 30%, GA/60 down 39% with a Sv% decrease of only 3.4%. I have no explanation for these numbers. His 5v5 numbers are actually better than last year (similar to the elite numbers he had before Boucher), which is good to see, but I just can’t get over how bad he’s been on the PK. From 2015-2017, Karlsson was either 1st or 2nd in every PK stat. I looked at every 50-minute-on-the-PK season from a Senators defenseman in the past 5 years, and there were 26: 5 by Ceci, 4 by Karlsson/Methot, 3 by Phaneuf/Cowen, 2 by Phillips/Gryba/Borowiecki, 1 by Oduya. Not exactly all-stars, here. For CA/60, Karlsson this season ranks 16th/26 (other Karlsson seasons 1, 5, 8). FA/60: 18th/26 (2, 6, 12). SA/60: 25th/26(5, 6, 15). xGA/60: 26th/26 (2, 3, 17). Basically, Karlsson has done worse on the PK this season than 20+ seasons of Ceci/Phaneuf/Phillips/Cowen/Methot/Gryba/Boro/Oduya, who are all really bad (except Methot who is just mostly bad). Given that expectations were “he’s the best defenseman in the world and it isn’t even close”, but also that he’s clearly still our best defenseman this season by a country mile and compares favourably to most D in the league:
Grade: C-
Fredrik Claesson
Claesson has 2 points this year. That’s pretty bad. He doesn’t have the exceptional numbers that he did last season, but he hasn’t been bad, offense notwithstanding. He’s been good on the PK (although he’s our 5th-most used D), and hasn’t seen time on the PP. I know many were hoping he’d permanently take the spot next to Karlsson and boost our top-4, but that hasn’t really happened. He’s been a healthy scratch on multiple occasions, which is ridiculous given the injuries and the state of our D-corps in general. At this point in his career (he’s 25), I’m not sure he’ll ever be the top-4 guy we were all hoping he’d be, and I’ll admit I was hoping for more out of him. That being said, just like Wideman, we could do worse on the bottom pair.
Grade: C
Johnny Oduya
I expected his 5v5 numbers to be horrendous, but they weren’t. Turns out Karlsson can still carry washed-up vets. His numbers without Karlsson are, however, horrendous. I also expected his PK numbers to be horrendous, but again, they weren’t. He has no offensive presence, and I think the only reason he has 6 points is that he plays with Karlsson a lot. He has no business playing with Karlsson, and drags him down, and when he plays with Ceci or Phaneuf, his numbers take a big hit. He is a Dumont-type player; pretty much anyone you put in there is better, because he’s one-dimensional and bad at that dimension. Also, he takes too many penalties (14 in 39 games). Thank goodness he doesn’t have another year on his deal. He should be out of the NHL next season (but probably won’t be, because CUPS and WINNING and stuff). All he has going for him is that no one expected him to be more than the 6th or 7th D, and his contract isn’t poison, so expectations were low.
Grade: D
Mark Borowiecki
Quick, who is the Senators’ Rel xGF% leader this season? Yup, I’m as shocked as you are. Small sample size, as he only played 12 games in the first half, but that’s mighty impressive. He made Ceci look competent in 61 minutes of 5v5 play, for heaven’s sake. I’d like to see him continue his good numbers over the whole season before I declare him “good at hockey. I don’t like that he has a 3-year contract, because that just seems unnecessary, but at least he’s pretty cheap (slightly over $1M). Also, he’s AHEAD of Karlsson in P1/60 at 5v5 this season. Mark Borowiecki. Ahead of Karlsson. That has more to do with the fact that he’s only played 142 minutes at 5v5, but still…he has more 5v5 goals than Karlsson does in less than 1/5 of the ice time. Tied for 2nd in individual shot attempts per 60min for D. Again, this is all in a small sample, but it’s a nice trend given that he’s been arguably the worst defenseman in the NHL for the past few years (and no, that is not my “opinion” on the matter, very smart people rank players on all sorts of things using various different models, and he often shows up in the bottom-5).
Grade: B+
Thomas Chabot
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Erik Karlsson’s partner. There’s really no excuse to play Oduya with Karlsson when Chabot is available. Their numbers together literally sparkle if you look from a certain angle. They have drawn 4 more penalties than they’ve taken when they’re together, which is rare for a defense pair (Karl-Oduya are -1, Karl-Claesson are -3). Chabot is another player who has made Ceci look respectable (59 minutes). There is no doubt in my mind that Chabot is the 2nd-best defenseman on our team, and he’s only 20, which is pretty much the only thing about the team that makes me really excited. He should not be scratched probably ever again, at least not until he’s an over-the-hill vet at age 38. I know lots of people have reservations about giving big minutes to young defensemen, but this kid is legit. Werenski, Provorov, McAvoy take on huge roles for their teams; I’m not saying Chabot is necessarily as good as any or all of those guys, but he should be playing 20+min per night, not the 15 he’s getting now. Especially given the minutes allocated to Ceci, Phaneuf, and Oduya. I’m not sure Chabot actually objectively deserves the grade I’m about to give him, but I really don’t care and we need some positivity in here. I love this kid.
Grade: A+
GOALIES
Craig Anderson
I looked at every Craig Anderson season for the past 10 years, just to get a better idea of how this season compares to his career. This season, he is at his worst ever in 5v5 Sv%, Low-Danger Sv%, Medium-Danger Sv%, FSv%, all the same stats in all-situations, and 5v5 GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average; and 2nd last in all situations GSAA). He is performing at his career average for 5v5 High-Danger Sv% and most PK Sv% stats. He has allowed 14 5v5 Low-Danger goals this season (34gp); his career high is 15 in 63 games. Worst GSAA in the entire league (35 goalies with 20+ games played). 3rd worst in Sv%. 2nd worst in dSv% (delta save percentage: save% – expected save%). 2nd worst in LDSv%. 5th worst in MDSv%. 5th worst in HDSv%. (all at 5v5). Basically: Anderson has been an absolute disaster this season. I know that was a lot of numbers and I said I’d try not to…but those numbers are just so so so bad. And we just signed him for 2 years at starter money. Is there a grade lower than F?
Grade: F
Mike Condon
I have no clue why we extended him for 3 years. He is not a good NHL goalie. 8th worst all-situation Sv% and dSv% (out of 55 goalies with 600+min). He has actually been sort of decent ish at 5v5 this season, especially compared to Andy. 5v5 GSAA is +1.2 (first time in his career he’s been positive!!). It’s his PK numbers that are suffering this year, where’s been 4th-worst in GSAA, 4th-worst in Sv%, and worst in dSv% (50+min). He is absolutely not an NHL starter, and he is not even a good NHL backup. He is an okay NHL backup, maybe. So he should make about $800k. But no, he has a 3-year contract at $2.4M per year. It’s like Hammond all over again, except Hammond was 5x as good as Condon during his run, and his contract was half as big. It makes no sense.
Grade: D
COACHES
I don’t know enough about the different coaches and their respective jobs, so this will just be one grade for all of them together (mostly focusing on Boucher because he should shoulder most of the responsibility/blame/praise as head coach):
We’re 27th in PP, 28th in PK, 28th in Goals Against, 25th in Goals For, 26th in CF%, 30th in xGF%. After Karlsson, our most-used D are Ceci, Phaneuf, and Oduya. Ceci plays 7:24 more per night than Chabot does. Useful forwards like White, DiDomenico, Chlapik, and Paul all play less than Pyatt, Thompson, and Burrows, when they play at all. Don’t get me started on the healthy scratches. Ceci-Phaneuf is our most-used D pairing and they are absolutely terrible. The line combos haven’t been as bad as in the past now that Hoffman isn’t stuck with Pyatt, but we never have GOOD lines because the coach buries useful players on the 4th line, or scratches them in favour of Burrows and Dumont. Same on D; we never have an optimal lineup because the wrong players get minutes. Our team is terrible at everything. Oh wait that not true we’re 5th in faceoff%.
Grade: F
MANAGEMENT
Again, don’t know about duties, etc., to grade different people, so it’ll just be a single grade. Also, I agonized over what date to use as a cutoff for looking at management performance, because using the start of the season doesn’t make much sense. I ended up deciding on the entire offseason plus any signing/extension that starts this season, even if it was made before the offseason.
The big things here are the Smith/Andy/Burrows/Condon/Pageau extensions, Oduya/Thompson signings, the draft, and the Duchene trade. I’m going to do my best not to use hindsight here, as I always stress judging moves as they happen, with only the knowledge that was available at the time. I was most okay with the Pageau extension, followed by Andy, Smith, Condon, and Burrows. None of them were “good” at the time, and only Burrows was really “awful”. The others ranged from “why did we give them so much term…” to “meh whatever that’s fine”. Overall, not an impressive start.
The Odyua and Thompson signings were both bad to begin with. Oduya was way past his prime, but at least it was 1 year, $1M. Still, there were definitely better and cheaper options available. Thompson has basically always been bad, so 2 years at $1.65M per year was pretty ridiculous. At least 20 forwards who are better than Thompson were signed for less term and less money, but I guess none of them played for Boucher 5 years ago.
Here’s a really, really obvious tip for the management of any team strapped for cash: don’t give out money and term to bad players like it’s candy. Our management does not seem to understand that. The draft: Bowers was a low-risk pick. We don’t need another Lazar/White. We need prospects who can score, and Eeli Tolvanen was still on the board. I have no clue what was said about Formenton and Batherson at the time, but they seem to have been solid picks (especially Batherson who is having a great year). The Duchene trade was honestly fine. We knew our Karlsson window, and we went for it. I don’t care about losing Bowers, and the 1st round pick wasn’t supposed to be so high. If Turris wasn’t resigning with us (sounds like he wasn’t), then the trade was fine. I probably missed something, so forgive me for that please.
I don’t think management did anything that was actually “good” this year, but it didn’t do anything team-crushing either (like sign Seabrook to his 28-year $370M contract, or trade Hall for Larsson). Just a collection of average-to-bad moves that mostly had small impacts on the team. The thing is, 5 small bad things are just as bad as 1 big bad thing. It’s on management that our entire roster outside of Stone/Hoffman/Duchene/Brassard/Ryan-sometimes/Karlsson/Chabot is not good enough. That’s 6.5 good players on a 23-man roster. We have a bunch of overpaid, ineffective veterans taking spots away from decent prospects and young players. And all of those players will still be here next year unless we can find some sucker to take them from us. Our team is sunk, our Karlsson window is shut, and at this point I don’t think there’s anything we can do other than ship out everyone, including the owner, management, and coaching staff, and start from scratch. We need a smart billionaire to buy the team and completely clean house.
Grade: D- (At least Dorion isn’t Chiarelli)
Alright guys, this was a little less optimistic than the forward one, and maybe a little more stats-heavy, but I hope you all enjoyed it. Like last time, here’s the recap (I’ll try not to screw it up this time):
Ben Harpur: C
Christian Jaros: C
Chris Wideman: A-
Cody Ceci: F
Dion Phaneuf: F
Erik Karlsson: C-
Fredrik Claesson: C
Johnny Oduya: D
Mark Borowiecki: B+
Thomas Chabot: A+
Craig Anderson: F
Mike Condon: D
Coaches: F
Management: D-
Stats from corsica.hockey and nhl.com/stats
