WRITTEN BY SENSCHIRP READER- AutoTurris
On a team that struggled with defensive woe after defensive woe in their 2013 campaign – despite having a generational talent anchoring their blueline and being donned the esteemed title of ‘Pesky’ only a year removed – there was little solace to be found in the Senator’s D corps come April of last year. That’s not to say there is not potential there; Cody Ceci, the young stud who is making life hell for those in charge of the backend, Erik Karlsson, the – in my admittedly biased opinion – best defenseman in the game right now (not to harp on the subject), and of course, everyone’s favourite underrated player, Patrick Wiercioch, who has shown admirable promise.
Appearing in only 53 contests and averaging just under 15 ½ minutes of ice time a game, #46’s future on the team seemed to be in question come the spring of last year. For most of us, this did not make sense; his advanced stats backed him as not only one of our better defenders but as a player on the verge of breaking out. With a GF20 (Goals For while player is on ice per 20 minutes of ice time) of 0.836 for 5v5 even strength (compare this to #65’s 0.876 GF20 for 5v5), in the limited time that Wiercioch played, he proved effective at generating offense. Of course, #65 was facing tougher opposition, but the argument here is to not that #46 is comparable in skill to #65, simply that he has promise and deserves a chance to grow.
But you all knew that.
“Then why I am writing this article?” “We are all Team Wiercioch here on SensChirp, we don’t need you reiterating the stats that we already know.” Before we all raise our pitchforks and torches, there’s a point to all this. Although this has been widely criticized due to Wiercioch’s inexperience and presumable inability to handle the lion’s share of minutes, I believe that #46 should pair with #65.
Wiercioch’s With or Without You stats when paired with Karlsson are astronomical, with a CF% of 63.7 and GF% of 83.3. The obvious reason for these insane numbers is that the small sample size of minutes #46 and #65 shared together (58:40) was, in all likelihood, powerplay time. So, while these numbers are better than those of Seabrook and Keith, the generalizability of them to all circumstances is quite low. Does that mean that we should not see how they do sharing 1000 minutes together? I know my answer to that question.
So their numbers show that they deserve a look, but two PMD? That just won’t work. Well, if I thought that, why would I bother writing this article? #46 and #65 would be an excellent defending duo in terms of possession driven play, an aspect of the game we are purportedly trying to make our central focus. iCorsi/60 (Individual Corsi – The number of corsi events a player takes is a great tool in which we can look at the amount of shots taken by an individual per 60 minutes of game time. This is a great proxy for possession and we can see that Karlsson, the interweb dubbed ‘Corsi King’ has an iCorsi/60 of 15.256, another testament to his unmatchable talent.
Well, if we can use Karlsson’s iCorsi/60 as a measuring post, Wiercioch lands on an iCorsi/60 of 12.532 (compare that to Duncan Keith’s of 11.913). Again, I do not add these comparisons as my way of saying that I believe Wiercioch to be better than or on par with these players, I do it simply for contextual purposes. But as we can see, Wiercioch drives play through his possession, although not as much as King Karl (who are we kidding, no one drives pay like him) but at a moderate rate.
It is my belief that blending these two would result in a force of possession driven play, as the league continues to move away from body crunching and enforcing (not to say those aren’t important).
Both players are also exemplary at breaking out of their own zone, albeit they both do so in different fashions. Thus far, I see nothing in the numbers that suggests 46/65 does not deserve a look. However, a concern of some is that #46 would not be able to handle #65 minutes, especially if he is crushing 30+ minutes a game. While I can’t give any numerical evidence to back my beliefs, I do think he is ready for the jump. When Turris was thrust into the 1C position 2 years ago, we saw how capable he was to take over for the time being. Wiercioch is in the same boat, in my opinion, I believe throwing him to the wolves is the best way to see if he will sink or swim.
Am I right about everything I touched on here? Well, aside from ‘right’ being completely subjective, I’m not convinced that 46/65 is the be-all-end-all and that it’s a sure fire guarantee. I just believe that they are a great, if not the best, candidate for something to try. And given the state of our blueline, I would say management had better start trying some stuff. Otherwise, I would say trade #46 and get something worthwhile because I would rather see him wearing different colours than continuing to sit on the bench while Cowen continues to make us all cringe.
But most of all, thanks for reading.
