WRITTEN BY- Canada Sports Betting
Ottawa’s losing November has fans looking for red linings in the storm clouds, hopefully absorbing the diminished light of the winter sky as the NHL season rolls into December.
Let’s look at the positives, instead of dwelling on the negatives.
Canada Sports Betting has crunched the numbers, finding out the Sens thrive when pressed back against the wall.
The Senators are increasingly being pegged as underdogs as the year progresses, great news for those following the puckline trends carried over from their remarkable 2016-17 season. Last year, the Senators were 36-17 as puckline underdogs, earning a .679 percentage against a 1.5 goal spread. This means the Sens either won or kept contests within a goal in two-thirds of the games they were slated to lose.
Coach Guy Boucher’s 1-3-1 system is conducive to keeping contests close. As a frequent sportsbook underdog, the Senators consistently conquer the NHL puckline odds.
Since the beginning of the calendar year, the Senators have been one of the most difficult teams for favourites to face, including in the early stages of the 2017-18 regular season.
In January 2017, the Senators fully took to Boucher’s system, helping transcend results. As NHL betting underdogs, the Sens finished the rest of the regular campaign with a 22-8 puckline record. In other words, the Sens won or lost by a goal or less in 22 of 30 underdog situations down the stretch.
The trend of Ottawa’s terrific play as underdogs continued early in the 2017-18 season, when the Sens won six in a row as puckline underdogs, including an impressive three-game win streak during their tour of Western Canada.
Ottawa continued their good form as underdogs in October, winning four of six puckline picks. November was a bit of an anomaly, but, as a general rule of thumb, you know what to do if the Sens are pegged as the underdogs on the puckline. Have faith they’ll either keep it close or prove the oddsmakers completely wrong by winning outright.
Good News: Matt Duchene should score more goals
On November 25th, Matt Duchene finally broke through against the New York Islanders in the Sens’ sixth straight loss. This was long overdue as in his first seven games with Ottawa, he didn’t score a goal on 24 shots – including 10 shots against his Mile High buddies.
His breakout game against the Islanders included an even plus/minus, another big improvement. Let’s hope he starts catching fire, and soon.
Good News: Erik Karlsson is Due
Erik Karlsson is still the best defenceman in the National Hockey League. And he’s due for an offensive explosion. This is great news for a franchise that always plays better when Karlsson is at his best.
Karlsson registered a dreadful -9 between November 16th and the 25th, but he reversed this trend with a strong +1 showing against the Montreal Canadiens on November 29th, when the Senators lost by a single goal. He’s now gone an unheard of seven games without registering a point, which not so coincidentally lines up with the number of games the Senators have lost during this streak.
Expect Karlsson to enjoy a much better December, one reminding us of why he’s the superior blueliner in the NHL.
Good News: Sens still in the playoff hunt
Sure, losing streaks always hurt, but the Senators haven’t shoveled themselves out of the playoffs yet.
The Senators play many road games in a row in December, a blessing by their current disappointing home record.
Overall, Ottawa has performed better on the road than at home, losing fewer games away from the Canadian Tire Centre. December is pivotal, offering the Sens a chance to play tight, simple hockey. It’s a winning formula we’ve seen them master in the past, and what better time – in the approach to Christmas – than to revitalize a disappointing season thus far.
