WRITTEN BY- Robertson Davies’ Beard
We will have hockey again.
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, like the Spanish Flu of 1918, will come to pass. This does not depend on where you get your news, who you trust, what you believe, or even your abilities to suspend your own disbelief. The world will get thru this. The NHL, too.
The NHL knows a thing or two about survival. It’s been through a lot of history, including multiple recessions, WWII, the Great Depression, and the Spanish Flu. In the 1919 Stanley Cup final between Montreal and Seattle, Montreal’s Joe Hall died of pneumonia brought on by Spanish Flu. The remainder of the series was cancelled and the Stanley Cup for 1919 was not awarded. There were no winners.
The league leadership is filled with smart people. They have studied their history. And so, the NHL desperately wants to avoid a repeat of the Joe Hall incident. And, it wants to see the Stanley Cup awarded. Though, perhaps, not as desperately.
Misconceptions and Leaps of Faith
Meanwhile, let’s agree to put aside any misconceptions that a dash of disinfectant, a splash of sunshine or even that hydroxchloroquine pills can magically vanquish COVID-19. But at the same time let’s also take a leap of faith as fans. Let’s assume we get through this interregnum – this suspension of the normal course of things – and let’s agree that there will be a 2020/2021 NHL season. (Or, at minimum, another NHL season.)
Parts of the game will undoubtedly be different for teams and players on the ice. To begin with, players are going to have to learn to be more polite with each other. No spitting on the ice seems like a good start. Fighting, which has already largely disappeared from previous playoffs might end up being entirely outlawed. Ditto for licking an opponents face a la Brad Marchand of the Bruins. All this and we have not yet arrived at enforcing social distancing in the dressing rooms, players’ benches and penalty boxes. Trust me, it’s coming.
Economic Pounding and Three Hours of Ronnie Runningnose
Oddly enough, what happens on the ice and with the players might be the least of the challenges facing the NHL. For a time, at least, the league has the relative security and stability of its broadcast agreements and the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with the NHLPA. But cracks in the foundation of the solid business built by Gary Bettman and company have already begun to appear.
Ticket sales are the lifeblood of a gate driven league like the NHL. That was great earlier this year if you owned the Chicago Blackhawks or Montreal Canadians and you were averaging over 20,000 attendance at games. Not so great if you owned the Islanders or Senators and averaged a scant 12-13,000 fans per game prior to the pandemic.
Anyone care to take a guess at what attendance figures will be like in Montreal or Chicago when we get around to the next season of hockey? Let’s start with the fact that Quebec has been hit harder by COVID-19 than anywhere else in Canada. Illinois has taken an economic pounding, too. When hockey is back, finding people in any NHL city willing to sit beside a stranger for 3 hours is going to be a tougher task than ever before… let alone getting people to pay for the pleasure of sitting beside Johnny Coughalot or Ronnie Runningnose.
Save the NHL, Sacrifice Ottawa
A lot of people are going to have misgivings about returning to the rinks. We haven’t yet gotten around to figuring out whether fans might be required wear masks, take squirts of hand sanitizer, or agree to giving a temperature reading. Will there be plexiglass partitions and sneeze-guards between seats? Will there still be concession stands? Quite honestly, social distancing was already enough of an issue when lining up for the can at NHL games before the pandemic. A little more room in those queues would be a good thing.
The post-COVID 19 story is going to be a lot worse in places like Florida, Carolina and Ottawa than the NHL is letting on. These are franchises that were already missing great swaths of fans at each home game. Franchises with arenas that look half full or worse don’t exactly inspire confidence in their long term viability. They were already struggling mightily before anyone had given much thought to the little flu bug that emerged in Wuhan China and then transformed itself into a historic global economy shaking pandemic.
The NHL can handle it. It always has. Through the 1930’s, 40’s, 70s, 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s, the NHL and its clubs jointly endured a barrage of economic and societal upheavals. The NHL has survived through thick and thin, not least of which because it’s always been willing to sacrifice some parts of the league to preserve the whole. This is the future that might be in store for fans in cities like Ottawa.
Boondoggles, Doubts and Hangovers
You have doubts, do you? Fair enough. But let’s acknowledge that there were once teams in Atlanta, Cleveland, Hartford, and Quebec. A slew of other franchises have come and gone over the years, too.
Over the course of its hundred year history there have been more than a few commonalities shared between cities and franchises that have been pruned by the NHL. Very prominent among these shared threads is poor attendance, weak or financially unsettled ownership, and the lingering after-effects of economic or societal upheaval.
The new normal – if there is a new normal – for the league and the 2021 season won’t match the 2019-20 league wide average of 17-18,000 per game. It’s easily conceivable that we will see that number drop by ten or twenty per cent. It’s not hard to see an even more precipitous decline.
Take 25-30 million unemployed Americans ( and a few million more Canadians) and the league-wide impact of the COVID-19 hangover will probably dwarf the relative impact of the Government of Canada’s Phoenix boondoggle/scandal/disaster on the Senators attendance numbers. Things could get ugly. Real ugly.
A New Bandwagon, A New Normal?
As we learned with Joe Hall and the Spanish Flu, poor attendance isn’t the worst possible outcome for the league, or the Ottawa Senators, or their fans. But, it is a potential harbinger of things to come unless the league and Senators owner Eugene Melnyk get their collective asses in gear. It might seem early to some, but strategies for season’s ticket sales and sponsorships are going to have to be drawn up soon. It’s going to be tough, but it’s never too early to start talking to Sens fans, Euge. (Giddyup, pal. You’re already late.)
And what about Sens fans? Especially those who have sat on the fence and gone missing these past couple of years. They have a big part to play in this, too. A new bandwagon is desperately needed. But, when all is said and done with the draft, and the Sens cupboard is overflowing with exciting, young talent; will fans and the business community put aside their misgivings and return to the rink for the 2021 season? Can we move up the standings in both wins and attendance?
A new normal for the Ottawa Senators? Let’s hope so.
