WRITTEN BY- Whammer
Apparently a Kraken is a legendary sea-monster that according to Norse legend lives off the coast of Greenland and terrorizes sailors. Forevermore it will now be associated with a hockey team in Seattle. You may or may not like the name but how could you not get behind their home rink, The Climate Pledge Arena. My first thought was this was named after a furniture polish but no it’s a nod to climate change activism by the arena’s owner .. Amazon, huh? Unfortunately I will now always think of this barn as the Lemon Pledge Arena and of Betty Draper enjoying a good clean.
Clearly I have digressed. If you are still with me, I took a look at the Seattle expansion draft and potential impact on the Senators back before this season started. Now that the end of the Senator season has arrived, it seemed like a good time to revisit it and share my thoughts on how I think the draft may play out in Ottawa.
The Seattle Kraken are scheduled to debut in 2021-22, with the expansion draft of NHL players from 30 teams to take place sometime this summer. The actual draft date is likely a moving target at this point.
Before we get started it is helpful to get an understanding of the rules associated with the draft.
Here is a Quick Run-Down of the Rules:
- Each team, except the Vegas Golden Knights, will lose one player. Seattle is required to take 3 goalies, 9 defensemen, and 14 forwards.
- 20 of the 30 players selected must be under contract for the 2020-21 season, leaving the other 10 to be pending Unrestricted or Restricted Free Agents.
- The cap hits of the players selected must be at least 60% of the previous season’s upper limit cap and it cannot exceed the upper limit. Seattle will not be allowed to buyout any of these contracts in their first year of play.
- All teams must protect 1 goaltender. They will then have a choice of 7 forwards and 3 defensemen or choosing any combination of skaters to a maximum of 8. (ie. 4F and 4D)
- Players with no-movement clauses must be protected unless they agree to waive their clause. Players with no-trade clauses do not have to be protected.
- All first and second year NHL players, and all unsigned draft picks will be exempt from the draft and will not need to be protected.
- Players who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games in the 2020-21 season may also be exempt, with league approval.
What defines a professional season?
- A Player aged 18 or 19 earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more NHL games in a given NHL season.
- A player aged 20 or older (or who turns 20 between September 16 and December 31 of the year in which he signs his first SPC) earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more Professional Games under an Standard Player Contract (SPC) in a given League Year.
- Furthermore, players who play professional games in the AHL or other professional leagues in a year where their contract slides are not expected to have those years count as “professional seasons” for purposes of expansion. This is because the player is 18/19 in the years that his contract slides, so only 10 or more NHL games would be considered a professional season.
- Note that while the 18/19 age threshold refers to NHL games, the 20+ age threshold refers to Professional Games. “Professional Games” includes the following: any NHL Games played, all minor league regular season and playoff games and any other professional games played, including but not limited to, games played in any European league or any other league outside North America, by a Player pursuant to his SPC.
Team Exposure Rules by Position
- Defensemen exposed – at least 1 who is under contract for 2021-22 and have played a minimum of 40 NHL games in 2020-21 or 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- Forwards exposed – a minimum of 2 who are under contract for 2021-22 and have played a minimum of 40 NHL games in 2020-21 or 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- Goaltenders exposed – at least 1 who is under contract in 2021-22 or he will be a restricted FA at the end of his current contract prior to 2020-21 and have received their qualifying offer
- Players who have potential career ending injuries cannot be used to meet any of the above criteria
If you got through all that and it makes sense to you, let’s take a look at how this may work for the Ottawa Senators. I will only look at players who satisfy eligibility requirements. If I haven’t mentioned a player, he is either not eligible to be drafted or simply not worthy of being mentioned. I will take a stab at RFA and UFAs and how the Sens may approach their future.
Goalies
(1 player must meet exposure requirements)
Matt Murray – Signed and Eligible
Joey Daccord – Signed and Eligible
Marcus Hogberg – RFA and Eligible
Filip Gustavsson – RFA and Eligible
Anton Forsberg – UFA and Eligible
The early assumption may have been to expect Matt Murray to be protected. Murray is being paid as if he will be the Sens #1 goalie for the next 4 years (AAV $6.25M). However, after very inconsistent play and with injuries opening the door for the next wave of Sens goalies to get opportunities, there is a growing belief that it makes more sense to expose Murray. Let’s face it, goalies with his salary and term, sporting an .880 save % are not likely at the top of Seattle’s must have list. The Kraken will have a number of goalies to choose from in this draft and it would make sense for them to grab a “proven” veteran if one was available (a la Vegas with M-A Fleury). There will likely be better/more affordable options, including Jake Allen, Anton Khudobin, and Cam Talbot among others.
Even though he has been injured for a significant period, Marcus Hogberg has likely played himself out of a future with the Sens. Having said that, Hogberg re-emerged in Belleville this past Friday night and looked pretty good in a 2-1 B-Sens win. He is a pending RFA and I’m leaning toward the Sens moving on from Hogberg. I really can’t see them giving him a guaranteed one-way contract as things stand now. It’s possible that newly required Anton Forsberg could play himself into the Ottawa goalie mix. Pierre Dorion has an affinity for acquiring goalies on a bargain and getting attached. Mike Condon and Anders Nillson both being recent examples. (It’s funny, I’ve almost forgotten that Nilsson ever played for the Sens. It’s almost like he was a ghost). The Sens would have to sign the pending UFA Forsberg if they are interested in him going forward. We’ll see how that plays out but any attempt to retain Forsberg would likely happen post expansion draft.
The decision as to who to protect will likely come down to Filip Gustavsson and Joey Daccord. If any of you are like me, up to about a week or so ago I kind of had given up on Gustavsson as someone I anticipated being at the top of Ottawa’s goalie of the future pile. His performances have been up and down in the AHL and he didn’t appear to be progressing, but since goalies are often as predictable as the weather, “Gus” now with 3 games under his belt including 2 wins, has jumped the rankings to being the latest heir apparent to be #1. It may only take one or two games of sub par goaltending for the Sens faithful to turn on him but for now anyway he is gold. Daccord had been given the net with both Murray and Hogberg being injured and he did have a solid 8 game run, providing more consistent goaltending for the team which had been desperate for it. While his season ending injury was extremely unfortunate, the silver lining to the injury could be two-fold. 1. It gives the team a chance to see what Gus can do at the NHL level and 2. It makes Daccord a riskier selection for the Kraken given they will be unsure of his recovery and whether his 8 game NHL stint is indicative of his potential.
Prediction
Protected: Filip Gustavsson (2021 RFA)
Exposed: Joey Daccord (2023 RFA), Matt Murray (2025 UFA)
If the Kraken choose a Sens goalie: Joey Daccord
Defence
(1 players must meet exposure requirements):
Thomas Chabot – Signed and Eligible
Nikita Zaitsev – Signed and Eligible
Josh Brown – Signed and Eligible
Erik Gudbranson – UFA and Eligible
Mike Reilly – UFA and Eligible
Brayden Coburn – UFA and Eligible
Since there is absolutely no reason for the Sens to go the 8 skater route for protection purposes, they will be protecting 3 Defensemen, even if they may not have 3 worth protecting Erik Brännström will be exempt so it saves a spot. Chabot is the only slam dunk to be protected, and the early season projection would have likely included Wolanin as one of the three as well. That sentiment has changed with Wolanin being traded to the Kings. We can also eliminate both Coburn and Gudbranson from any equation. It’s difficult to imagine either returning next season but even if Gudbranson is re-signed (please, no), he won’t require protection.
With Artyom Zub being exempt despite his age and pro years in the KHL the Sens are left with the options of Zaitsev, Brown and possibly a re-signed Reilly. There have been some rumblings that the Sens will look to bring Reilly back. I’m on the fence as to whether this should happen. I can see both sides to an argument for and against. The question for this exercise though is it necessary to protect any of these 3 players? For me it’s a simple no. If the Kraken were to take any of them I would see this as a win for the Club. However, if the Sens do sign Reilly before the draft then I can also see them protecting him, if for no other reason other than who else are they going to protect.
I’m sure Pierre Dorion will be working the phones but his ability to take on a defenseman from a team that has too many to protect will be a great situation to leverage pre-draft. Players like Matt Dumba, Vince Dunn, Thomas Hickey, Mattias Ekholm among others could be available. Ottawa has some forward depth they could flip out to make this happen.
Prediction
Protected: Thomas Chabot (2027 UFA), Mike Reilly (2021 UFA), Pierre Dorion Trade
Exposed: Nikita Zaitsev (2025 UFA), Josh Brown (2023 UFA)
If the Kraken choose a Sens defenseman: Nikita Zaitsev?
Forwards
(One player must meet exposure requirements)
Evgeni Dadodov – Signed and Eligible
Colin White – Signed and Eligible
Connor Brown – Signed and Eligible
Austin Watson – Signed and Eligible
Nick Paul – Signed and Eligible
Logan Shaw- Signed and Eligible
Chris Tierney – Signed and Eligible
Brady Tkachuk – RFA and Eligible
Jonathan Davidsson – RFA and Eligible
Zachary Magwood – RFA and Eligible (I did not make him up, he’s real!)
Jack Kopacka – RFA and Eligible
Vitaly Abramov – RFA and Eligible
Logan Brown – RFA and Eligible
JC Beaudin – RFA and Eligible
Drake Batherson – RFA and Eligible
Ryan Dzingel – UFA and Eligible
Derek Stepan – UFA and Eligible
Artem Anisimov – UFA and Eligible
Michael Haley – UFA and Eligible
Matthew Peca – UFA and Eligible
Clark Bishop – UFA and Eligible
This is the position where in my opinion Seattle grabs a player from the Sens.
Let’s eliminate a bunch of players from our thoughts in breaking this down. Shaw, Davidsson, Magwood, Kopacka, Beaudin, Stepan, Anisimov, Haley, and Peca. In some cases your futures may include the Otawa Senators but either way you are all the weakest links, good-bye. Our next list includes players that could be of interest to the Sens going forward but as UFAs they won’t impact the expansion draft. I’m looking at both Bishop and Dzingel.
This leaves us the following 10 players:
L. Brown, C.Brown, Abramov, Tkachuk, Tierney, Paul, Watson, White, Dadonov and Batherson.
The Club needs to have at least two players meet the exposure requirements. Watson and Tierney fit that bill and I can see them both being exposed. Both are role players, ideally in a team’s bottom 6. I think most teams could find a place for either of these guys on their rosters but they aren’t difference makers. I can’t see either player being the type of player the Kraken would target. While Tierney does have some offense in his game his footspeed is a concern making it unlikely for him to be selected. Watson’s hard minutes and soon to be hitting 30 years of age make him safe from selection.
Tkachuk, Batherson and Paul are automatics for being protected. When I first did this exercise before the season started Paul was on the outside of my protected list. I find his transformation to be a cautionary tale in making assumptions that players are who we think they are. This is why I would also include White on my protected list despite the weight of his salary. He is still a work in progress but he is proving he is more like the 2019 Colin White than the 2020 version. C. Brown is also on my list. His scoring, or rather lack thereof, frustrates me to no end but his value to the team would be difficult to replace.
This leaves the final two spots as a choice of Dadonov, Abramov, L. Brown. I ultimately see one of these players being moved for a defenseman before the draft happens, possibly even as part of a package. I like Dadonov but considering his salary I understand why there are some questions about his game since he has been hot and cold this season. He does need a centre to help drive his offence, but despite his difficulties he is still third on the team in goals and DJ Smith trusts his defensive game. Left exposed, I see no reason why Seattle wouldn’t take him. His contract only has 2 years left at $5M AAV and it’ not like there will be a ton of goal scorers available at this draft. His departure would also leave a big hole on the RW, where the team is already lacking depth.
This leaves two guys I would have hoped we would have seen at the NHL level already this season. Logan Brown seems to find a way to continually get in his own way. There is no question the team and fanbase want to see him live up to his draft status billing. While his time may be coming to an end in Ottawa I still find it difficult to imagine the Sens letting him walk away for nothing. As far as Abramov is concerned, in reality I have no idea what type of player he could be for the Sens. There is lots to like about his game. He has a fast motor without being a speedy player, he’s tenacious and has skill. Can he crack the top 6? Does his game work in the bottom 6? I just don’t know. Hopefully we will get to see him and Logan in some NHL action before the end of the season to really get a better understanding of what they can both do at the next level.
Prediction
Protected: Evgeni Dadodov (2024 UFA), Brady Tkachuk (2021 RFA), Drake Batherson (2021 RFA), Connor Brown (2024 UFA), Colin White (2026 UFA), Nick Paul (2023 UFA), Logan Brown (2021 RFA)
Exposed: Austin Watson (2024 UFA), Chris Tierney (2023 RFA), Vitaly Abramov (2021 RFA)
If the Kraken choose a Sens forward: Vitaly Abramov
Based on the possible options that the Sens could lose, I don’t believe it’s worth their while to incentivize the Kraken to take a specific player. I’ll qualify that statement by saying if the team can find the right deal to move a contract they don’t want anymore without giving up significant value, then that could definitely happen. I just can’t see any of the possible options the Kraken could choose being a loss that the Sens will regret.
My best guess as things stand today is that Seattle selects Vitaly Abramov from Ottawa and he is in the Kraken lineup on opening night at the Lemon Pledge Arena. Thanks for reading and I would love to hear what you might do differently.
Who would you protect and who do you think the Kraken selects?
