WRITTEN BY- KarlssonFan
Hey Chirp Readers,
KarlssonFan here with my first ChirpEd in a long, long time. I haven’t been on the site as much since the summer, for a number of different reasons. First and foremost, a number of life changes (don’t worry—all positive!) have disrupted my normal routine, but I was also growing tired of the general attitude in the comment section. Hopefully I’ll have more time to contribute in the comments for the remainder of this (depressing) season.
This type of post is pretty popular in the sports blogging community, and I know SilverSevenSens does a similar article (which I’ll link at the bottom, for comparison and in case anyone is interested). However, it’s a first for me. Before I jump into the numbers, I’ll briefly describe my criteria for judging each and every Senators player who’s played a game this season:
- Performance relative to expectation: Karlsson and Boro have vastly different roles and expectations, so it’s not fair to automatically fail Boro because he doesn’t compare to our glorious captain. This WILL include expectations based on salary and expectations based on contract extensions/signings/trades.
- Performance relative to 2016/17: We’ll see how players compare to last season, to see if they’ve improved or declined, or if their performance is relatively stable.
- Performance relative to other players: How well a player is performing well compared to the rest of the team or players around the league.
I’ve tried to take into account as many things as possible, including role, contract, objective performance, and relative performance. Obviously my system isn’t perfect, but at least I have a system, right? I know some of my posts are long-winded, and believe me, I could write a 20-page essay on this…but I’ll try not to do that. I’ll try to keep each player’s section short and sweet (or in some cases, not-sweet). This means I won’t be talking about tons of numbers, but trust me, I looked at all of them. I’ll be looking at forwards in this post, and a later post will have defensemen, goalies, coaches, and GMs. No matter when these posts end up on the site, I am only looking at stats from the first 42 games of the season (so everything up to the bye week). Without further ado, let’s start (alphabetically by first name because that’s how corsica.hockey sorts players):
Alex Burrows
Burrows is a disaster. His 0.49 5v5P160 (primary points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice team) is 2nd worst for Ottawa forwards, and less than half what it was last year (1.22). When he’s on the ice, the team generates 0 offence. This is offset somewhat by decent shot suppression, but he’s someone we gave up a top prospect for, and we granted him a 2y/2.5M extension with a modified NTC. He provides the same amount of 5v5 offence as Johnny Oduya. He has 2 PPP. His rate PP numbers are actually better than I expected (in terms of xGF/60 and CF/60), but we’re talking “below average” at best on our garbage PP. If Dahlen replaced him in our lineup right now, I’m confident that we’d be a significantly better team. And, of course, Dahlen is SIXTEEN years younger. If someone offers us a conditional 7th for our 6th and Burrows, I would take it.
Grade: D-
Alex Formenton
The Formenton hype was there at the beginning of the season, but it seems to have been replaced by Drake Batherson hype at this point, who is having a better Jr season and did better at the World Jrs as well. Formenton played a grand total of 1 game with the Sens this season, with under 5min total ice time, so that gives us nothing. On the other hand, I’m going to a Knights game next week, so I can give you a super-small-sample-eye-test -against-bad-competition report! We don’t have much to go on yet, so…
Grade: C
Bobby Ryan
Perhaps the most polarizing forward on the team, due to his immense, immovable contract and the apparent lack of bones in his hand. As per usual, he’s missed about 10 games to injury, and takes up about 10% of our cap hit. When semi-healthy, Ryan actually has the 2nd-highest 5v5 P160 this season, which is nice to see. His possession and xGF numbers are actually positive for once, and he has the 3rd-highest 5v5 Game Score per 60 (GS60) on our team. Game Score is based on Dom Luszczyszyn’s model of player evaluation (link at the bottom). Unfortunately, his 5v5 success is offset by his dreadful PP performance; he’s 2nd last in P160. Oh yeah, and Silfverberg is f**king awesome. His grade is due to the expectations placed on him by his contract and what we lost in the trade. If we’d signed him as a free agent for $4.5M, he’d probably have a B, because he’s actually been pretty good.
Grade: C
Chris DiDomenico
DiDomenico is interesting, because he was brought in at the request of Boucher, but was waived and demoted this year. This is very sad, because he’s pretty much been the best of our bad bottom-6 players this year. He was excellent in a very small sample of PP time, and has held his own at 5v5, which is better than most. He’s certainly exceeded my expectations (which were “replacement-level AHL 2nd liner). I think he’s a perfectly serviceable 4th liner who wouldn’t be a disaster on the 3rd line with decent players.
Grade: B+
Colin White
This was supposed to be the year when Colin White was a 3rd-line fixture, boosting our bottom-6 with a solid 2-way game and some offensive skill. Needless to say, it hasn’t been a great year for him so far. Injury trouble derailed the start of his season, and he hasn’t really found his groove in Ottawa. With only 3 games played, there isn’t really much to say based on his play, but safe to say everyone expected more than 0 points at the midway point of the season. Not entirely his fault, but:
Grade: C-
Derick Brassard
Another polarizing forward, due to the trade that sent Zibanejad and a 2nd to New York. However, Brassard is quietly having a good season, improving his offensive output at 5v5 and on the PP, and maintaining his sparkling possession numbers. The trade was still bad, as Zibanejad is probably as good as Brassard today and 6 years younger, but don’t believe anyone who tells you Brassard isn’t a good 2nd line centre.
Grade: A-
Filip Chlapik
Another of our 2nd-tier prospects, Chlapik has been given a couple cups of tea in Ottawa this season, and has impressed. Of course, he’s a victim of Boucher’s fear of anyone younger than 28, but has done very well in limited ice time with linemates who are usually very bad. He fires more pucks at the net than anyone else on our team, has good all-around numbers in a small sample size, and deserves a real shot at a top-6 spot.
Grade: A-
Gabriel Dumont
Everyone’s favourite waiver-wire pickup has the lowest 5v5 P160 of all our forwards. He is decent on the PK, and has bad-but-not-atrocious possession numbers, but his completely lack of offensive presence makes him pretty worthless. There are tons of other 4th-line players who are decent on the PK and have bad-but-not-atrocious possession numbers at minimum salary who would be better than him. Also, why does he have another year on his contract?
Grade: D
Jack Rodewald
I’ll be honest, I had to Google this guy. He played 4 games and did literally nothing. Let’s just move on.
Grade: C
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Somewhat of a cult hero in Ottawa, he is best known for 2 playoff masterpieces and scoring a bunch of short-handed goals one year. His 5v5 offense is down, possession is not great, PK shot/goal/xG suppression is good, and doesn’t play on the PP. Pretty clearly a defensive forward for Boucher, but doesn’t actually face very hard competition, and doesn’t have great shot/chance suppression numbers at 5v5. A strange player to analyze all around. He is not a “very good 3rd line C” as some people think, but he’s the best we have right now. Ideally he’s bumped to the 4th line, and he’s making too much money for too long, but he’s fine. Also, please keep him the hell away from Mike Hoffman.
Grade: C
Logan Brown
Another skilled young player who played very few games in very limited minutes, there isn’t much to say about Logan Brown. Expectations from some were that he was going to crack the roster and boost our bottom-6 alongside Colin White, while others felt he needed more seasoning time in Jr. He was sent back down to the OHL, and that’s probably where he belongs this season. Yes, he’s better than a lot of our forwards, but he was only going to play 10 minutes a night with Burrows and Pyatt anyway.
Grade: C
Mark Stone
Mark Stone is awesome.
Grade: A+
Okay fine I’ll actually write something about him. He is the best forward on our team, and this year he’s been the best player on our team as our beloved captain is having an uncharacteristic down year. He’s very good in just about every stat that exists. Off the top of my head, these are the wingers I’d take over Mark Stone right now: Marchand, Kucherov, Hall, Wheeler, Kane, Gaudreau, Tarasenko, Ovechkin. And only Kucherov and Gaudreau are younger. I probably missed a few, and there are some that are arguable (Benn, Kessel, Voracek, Huberdeau, Panarin), but you get the idea. He’s really, really good.
Grade: Still A+
Matt Duchene
Ah, Duchene. People have been very angry about that trade, given the 2-month disaster that followed it. However, the two are unrelated. Duchene is better than Turris, and we lost 0 other roster pieces. If my math is correct, that’s a net gain. The Sens just aren’t a good team…Turris wouldn’t have prevented our collapse. Duchene has actually been quite good; he’s 2nd on our team in 5v5 primary points with good possession numbers. He hasn’t had success on the PP, with only 3 points, but his shot rates and xGF rates are good, and he has the lowest dFSh% on the team on the PP. dFSh% stands for “Delta Fenwick Shooting Percentage”, which basically means the difference between actual shooting percentage and the shooting percentage that would be expected based on shot type/location/velocity/angle/etc. Essentially, Duchene has been very unlucky on the PP, and should turn it around soon.
Grade: B
Max McCormick
Another “small sample and who cares” player. Why do we call him up, anyway?
Grade: C
Mike Hoffman
For the love of everything good, do not trade Mike Hoffman for scraps. He’s our 2nd best forward, and has been for several years now. He’s not contributing as much offensively as in past years at 5v5 (he’s been good but not elite), but has been absolutely lights out on the PP to make up for it. I’m happy to blame his 5v5 struggles on too much time on the 3rd line and the general “badness” of our team. Possession numbers are good, and he’s one of 2 legitimate 1st-line players on our team. Do not trade him for less than a very good young forward or a very good forward prospect, and a pick (I’m thinking Kyrou and a 1st from St Louis, Buchnevich and a 3rd from NYR, Connor and a 2nd from Winnipeg, etc).
Grade: B+
Nate Thompson
5v5 offence is 3rd last, possession numbers are all atrocious, he’s the 2nd-most used PK forward and he’s very bad at it, I really have nothing good to say about him. Expectations were low, but he outdid them. How does he have a 2-year deal at $1.65M.
Grade: F
Nick Paul
Here’s another actual decent 4th-line forward who gets bumped for Thompson, Dumont, etc. Paul-Pageau-Didomenico would be a great 4th line. I think we all had pretty low expectations for him seeing as he still hasn’t cracked the big league, and he has not been that great but is a fine depth player.
Grade: B-
Ryan Dzingel
I’m a Dzingel fan, as I think most people are by now. He’s speedy, has a decent amount of skill, and doesn’t hurt the top-6 when he’s on the ice. Ideally he’s a scoring 3rd-line winger, but I’m fine with him playing with Stone/Brassard/Hoffman/Duchene, who are our only actual top-6 players. He’s 4th in 5v5 P160, up very slightly from last year, but is still not great on the PP (like last year). His possession numbers are up, likely from playing with better possession players (Brassard, Stone, Duchene) compared to last year (lots of minutes with Turris, Ryan, etc).
Grade: A-
Tom Pyatt
Tom Pyatt is 5th on the team in 5v5 P160. That sounds awesome, but it says just as much about the rest of the team as it does about Pyatt. The Hoffman-Pageau-Pyatt line was significantly worse this year than last year, and should never be assembled again. His possession numbers are still garbage, and his PK numbers are actually worse than last year’s bad PK numbers. Oh, and he’s our most-used PK forward. Why does he also have a 2 year deal? If it wasn’t for the bizarre improvement in 5v5 offense this season, which is really quite substantial (P160: .87 to 1.36, an increase of 56%) and not fuelled by inflated percentages, he’d probably be an F.
Grade: D
Zack Smith
When you’re behind Phaneuf and Borowiecki in 5v5 P160, and you’re a forward with a 4-year contract at $3.25M per season, that’s bad. He owes Mark Stone approximately 13 million beers. He has 0 primary points in almost an hour of PP time, but at least 3 secondary assists is better than the 1 point he had in 102 minutes last year…maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think Zack Smith is a PP guy. At least he’s decent on the PK, because he hasn’t really done anything else this year.
Grade: D
To recap for the TLDR folks (skipping the tiny-sample-size players):
Mark Stone: A+
Derick Brassard: A-
Filip Chlapik: A-
Ryan Dzingel: A-
Chris Didomenico: B+
Mike Hoffman: B+
Matt Duchene: B
Nick Paul: B
Bobby Ryan: C
Jean-Gabriel Pageau: C
Alex Burrows: D
Gabriel Dumont: D
Tom Pyatt: D
Zack Smith: D
Nate Thompson: F
Thanks for reading everyone, I’ll be back soon with the defensemen, goalies, coach(es), and GM(s)!
All stats are from the wonderful http://corsica.hockey/
Dom’s twitter, where you can read more about Game Score: https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn
Silver Seven Sens forward report cards: https://www.silversevensens.com/2018/1/15/16891368/mid-season-report-cards-forwards-mark-stone-ottawa-senators
