WRITTEN BY- Sens97
The NHL 2020 draft is upon us.
This draft is extremely exciting for the Ottawa Senators, who currently hold a total of 13 draft picks. Before I start this article I want to make this clear that I am not a scout, I am just a fan of the draft, junior hockey and hockey prospects. Everything in this article is just based on my opinion of the players and projecting which players will have the best NHL careers.
This draft is crucial for the future of the Sens and should be a pivotal one for the future of the organization. Currently the NHL standings are somewhat unclear with the playoffs being put on hold. The NHL entry draft date is also unclear as of now. There is only a general range of where most teams will be picking.
Some things of note in this draft; Going into this season I believed this draft was one of the strongest in the last decade for top end talent. However as the season progressed I found I may have overestimated the class in terms of its depth. I believed it was the second strongest top ten in the last decade next to 2015 and I still think that’s possible but I think it’s harder to gauge at this point. There is much more uncertainty and unpredictability in this draft than others. Part of that I think is due to the fact the season was cut short.
Going into this season I had roughly five players I felt that could compete with Alexis Lafrenière for number 1 in this order: Quinton Byfield, Lucas Raymond, Anton Lundell, Alexander Holtz and Justin Barron.
They all had very good draft minus-1 seasons. However Barron had a disappointing season filled with injuries and didn’t take the step forward I had hoped. Lundell also suffered injuries throughout the year and one took him out of the World Juniors. He was expected to be one of Finland’s better players after playing very well in the 2018-19 World Juniors. With all the end of the year playoffs and tournaments being cancelled, Lundell wasn’t given the opportunity to show his offensive skill I believe he possesses. Lundell finished the year strong and healthy which is why he’s still so high in my rankings.
Lucas Raymond has also struggled with injuries, lack of playing time and inconsistency. He played well through the year and showed flashes of his capabilities but he did not get much ice time or opportunity at the SHL level. He wasn’t given a first line role at the world juniors like I expected and didn’t play as well as I thought he could. However he was just coming off a serious illness and almost missed the tournament all together so I don’t hold that against him as much. Alexander Holtz had one of the most productive seasons in the SHL as a draft eligible player in the last 20 years. He really impressed me with his development but was just passed by some players who I liked slightly more.
Overall, I really like this top 10. I feel it’s a strong tier of the draft with tons of high end forwards and good defenceman. I feel there’s a great amount of high end talent in the first round and some strong depth going into the following rounds. I feel there is a lot of unpredictability in this draft and not much consensus in the rankings. It will be interesting to see if there are many sleepers in this draft and how the top end prospects develop.
With this article let’s take a look at the top 10.
1. Alexis Lafrenière
In my opinion, Lafrenière is the clear cut number one draft eligible prospect this year. He has been the best player on his team since he entered the QMJHL and possibly even the entire league. He is only the second player (other than Sidney Crosby) to win back to back MVP awards in the QMJHL. Lafrenière was the first QMJHL 16 year old rookie to score 40 goals since Sidney Crosby. He excelled at every challenge, event or obstacle in his way. He was completely dominant at the world juniors scoring at a two points per game pace and battling injury to win gold. His shot is NHL level, his skating, his physicality, his hockey IQ, everything he does is elite. He was essentially an NHL player stuck in junior hockey. I tried to think of any comparable player but couldn’t because his skillset is just unique. I believe he is the only prospect of this draft that is NHL ready. He will likely come into next season and make an immediate impact. He is a star and should easily be someone that an organization can build around. He just thinks and plays the game at another level from anyone in the draft. He is the best prospect that I have seen since the Matthews draft in 2016. I truly believe Lafrenière is a special player.
2. Quinton Byfield
I should mention, I believe there is a much smaller gap between the next group of players and I could see an argument for changing the order in pretty much any order you like. Byfield, the former first overall pick of the OHL draft, is the second best prospect in this draft. He has led the Sudbury Wolves in scoring for the two years he has played there. In his draft minus one season (2018-19) he won CHL and OHL rookie of the year awards. I have Byfield at #2 because I believe he has an extremely high upside and has the most room to grow before he hits his potential ceiling. I think an interesting comparable player would be a Evgeni Malkin type but with less edge. They both have the size, Byfield is 6.04ft, and have good skating ability for that size. Their hands are elite; their hockey sense and skillset are very similar. When Byfield is at his best I have seen him be absolutely dominant. At the pre-tournament games for the World Juniors I felt Byfield was one of, if not the most, dominant player on the ice.
Something to note is that Byfield is one of the youngest players of the draft with a mid-August birthdate. Most of the projecting involves Byfield developing and not where he is currently at in his development. He has done very well at the OHL level so far. While I don’t necessarily think he had the second best draft season of this class, I do believe long term he likely will be one of the best players out of the draft if he develops properly. I do not think he is NHL ready yet, nor is he eligible for the AHL/ECHL. I think another season in the OHL would be best for his development before we see Byfield enter the NHL full time. Overall I really like Byfields upside; there is a lot more projecting and development that is required with him before he will be NHL ready. I think he needs to become a little more consistent but when he is at his best he is an unstoppable, dominant force. He is the total package and someone you would want to build your team around. Overall I think the potential of getting a franchise number one centre would be too hard to pass up at second overall.
3. Tim Stützle
After the video and research I did in preparation for the draft, I could not decide on who I liked better between Stützle and Byfield. It was so close but I gave the #2 spot to Byfield based on the fact that he has a slightly higher ceiling than Stützle. I absolutely love Tim Stützle’s skill set. I see similarities in his game to the game of Elias Pettersson. Explosiveness is the best word to describe Stützle’s game. His speed, hands, vision and edge are all skills that will translate to the NHL level. I think his playmaking is his best asset. The way he sees the ice and is able to complete difficult passes is at an elite level. I know some might disagree with me but I really like his shot as well. I think there is potential there to become a really good goal scorer along with being an elite playmaker. He has some grit and edge to his game that I like. The biggest concern for me is the fact there’s almost no comparable to Tim Stützle or the DEL. The league compares to the VHL or Allsvenskian in terms of quality of competition but playing against men (even ex NHLers) should not be dismissed. At the NHL level I see Stützle becoming a flashy, skilled, number one centre. What Stützle has done this year is one for the history books. I think Stützle has the makings to be a potential star in the NHL.
4. Jamie Drysdale
Now here is where it gets really tough for me. Drysdale is a silky smooth right-shot defenceman and is the first defenceman in my rankings. He really grew on me over the past year. Originally I didn’t see him as the top defenceman but his progression and skill set was too much to ignore. He’s an elite skater in my opinion. The way he can walk the blue line, using his cross overs to create space, to either generate a shot on net or set up a pass is a great translatable skill. He’s so poised and patient with the puck and is always making crisp tape to tape passes. He showed his poise in the world juniors scoring an impressive goal against Finland. He took the puck, stickhandled and cut across the Finnish player and then wired it top shelf. To have that much poise as a 17 year old in the largest junior hockey tournament in the world is extremely impressive. He has a good shot that can get through traffic and on net which generates rebounds and high danger scoring chances. I think he’s underrated in the defensive zone as well. He has good gap control and stick work that can keep the opposition to the outside. Obviously he will need to get bigger, stronger and work with coaches to be a consistently good defender at the NHL level. I do think he can be a number 1 defenceman that can play in all situations if he develops properly.
5. Marco Rossi
I decided to go with Rossi at #5 mainly because of his elite hockey sense. You could easily sell me on Raymond, Lundell or Holtz deserving to go at this spot but I think Rossi has the best chance of that group to be the best NHLer. Rossi won in 2019-20 both the OHL Most Outstanding Player award and the OHL Most Point award. Perhaps Rossi doesn’t have the flash of a Raymond but he is just so smart and effective at his job. He had the toughest matchups pretty much every night for the 67s. He led the OHL in scoring with 120 points (39 goals) in 56 games. He was the best player on the number 1 ranked OHL team; this was solidified by being awarded the OHLs most outstanding player in 2020. Rossi has some of the highest hockey IQ in the draft. He displays this with his ability to disrupt plays with his stick. He is able to steal pucks or intercept passes and transition play toward the offensive zone. Once he is in the offensive zone he uses vision and passing ability to set up high danger scoring chances. He is listed on the smaller side with his height listed at 5`9“ on Central Scouting’s list however he’s extremely strong. I am not concerned with his size at all. His lower body strength is fantastic and is able to use it to hold off opposing players and protect himself from danger. I’ve seen mixed reviews on his skating. I don’t think Rossi has the breakaway speed like some other players have. Rossi does have very good balance, and ability I think with his ability to make those around him better and the fact he is able to drive the offence himself makes him such a desirable prospect. I highly value a prospect that doesn’t need to rely on an offence driving line mate. I think Rossi projects to be at least a top-6 centre at the NHL level.
6. Anton Lundell
Lundell is one of my favourite prospects for the 2020 NHL Draft. I think he’s starting to become slightly undervalued by most people. His international resume is extremely impressive. He constantly played above his age group and performed as one of the best players on his team at most tournaments. In 2017-18 won the U18 World Championship silver medal as a 16 year old, putting up 6 points in 7 games. In 2018-19 he took home gold at the U18s. In 2018-19 he won the U20 world juniors gold medal once again as a double underager putting up 4 points in 7 games. He missed the 2019-2020 U20 World Juniors because of a shoulder injury but he would have been guaranteed to make that team had he been healthy. In the Liiga, a men’s Finnish pro league, Lundell played exceptionally well this past season by putting up 28 points in 44 games. I think the way a player processes the game is more important than footspeed. Lundells biggest asset is his hockey IQ. What I would consider to fall into the category of his hockey IQ would be, his divisive capabilities, his vision, passing ability and his decision making. On the defensive side he is good at face-offs (53.5% in the Liiga), retrieving pucks and using his long stick to break up plays. Perhaps in the Liiga he did not complete his passes at a fantastic rate but at lower levels I saw him make fantastic, difficult passes that led directly to goals or dangerous chances.
He doesn’t have that game breaking speed and that’s been one of the biggest criticisms of his game however he thinks the game faster and smarter than most players. His shot isn’t what I would consider elite but it’s deceptively good. He put up 162 shots in 44 games; the shot itself is a hard one to break down. There’s not much wind up on his release but it still has great velocity and it often fools goaltenders at all levels. I think that because he isn’t as flashy or explosive as some of the other high end prospects he is being undervalued. The things in his game that need work can be worked out by an NHL skills coach or development staff. If he can gain a bit more of an explosive first and just developed a bit more I see the upside of a first line two way center. He is also one of the more NHL ready prospects that could likely see NHL time as soon as 2021-22.
7. Lucas Raymond
Lucas Raymond is potentially one of the most skilled players in the entire draft. Going into this season I believed there was a possibility that Raymond could go first overall. He had one of the most impressive draft minus-1 seasons I can remember. Unfortunately Raymond was really sick early on into the season and almost missed the World Juniors because of it. Raymond put up 4 points in 7 games which is very impressive statistically for an underager in a U20 tournament however he didn’t look as good as I expected he would. I felt he was invisible for large stretches of the tournament. I mostly chalked it up to his illness and the fact it was a U20 tournament. When I watched him SHL games in Frölunda I found many similarities to the World Juniors. He was invisible for the majority of the time and in other games barley played. I found Raymond was probably the hardest prospect to gauge. Do I rank him based on what he did against his peer group last year or do I value the lack of development this year? These are some of the things I had to balance.
When I look at his skill set Raymond has elite hands, real good passing and goal scoring ability. Also he is an absolute puck hound and good defensively. His skating is something I am not sure about. His straight line speed isn’t elite and I find he doesn’t have that great elusiveness either. I don’t think his skating is a negative, but I just don’t think it’s one of his better assets. What I would have preferred to see is Raymond in the CHL. I would have loved to see him play in his own age group in a system that allows Raymond to run the offence. I think he is a guy that needs to run the system and not the other way around. I still think there’s potential for Raymond to be a top 6 high end winger but he needs the right team to develop him. He is likely three years away from the NHL in my opinion but the potential is there for him to be a really good NHLer and a team in the top 10 should get a really good prospect.
8. Alexander Holtz
Alexander Holtz is potentially one of the best goal scorers of the draft. Holtz, like Raymond had, one of the most pre-draft resumes coming out of Sweden. He put up fantastic numbers and was offensively dominant at almost every level leading up to 2019-20. He was a part of the leadership group wearing a letter at a couple of international tournaments. In 2019-20 he showed he was too dominant for junior hockey putting up 9 points (7 goals) in three games. In the SHL he put up one of the highest goal scoring rates by a draft eligible player in SHL history. His best asset is his shot, specifically his wrist shot. It’s hard, accurate, and deceptive. His release is also pretty unique because there doesn’t need to be much wind up to generate velocity or accuracy. He can shoot and score through screens, and he doesn’t need much space or time to get off a great shot. He has an awkward skating style with a wide stance but his overall speed is good. I believe he is an unrated playmaker. He is more of a shooter but he is still willing and able to use his teammates. He can complete difficult passes and sees the ice well. He isn’t an elite playmaker but it is still a good part of his game that generally doesn’t get as much love. Overall I could see Holtz becoming a high end NHL winger and goal scorer.
9. Cole Perfetti
Perfetti had 37 goals (74 points) as an OHL rookie in 2018-19 and matched that total again in 2019-20 (37 goals in 61 games). Goal scoring is a big asset to Perfetti’s game but the best asset he possesses is his playmaking ability. He has great vision and ability to set his teammates up for scoring chances. He has fantastic hands and uses it to dangle around defenders or create more space to set up another play. I think he probably has the best hands of the draft. He could use a bit of work with his straight line speed but laterally he has great speed. He uses his crossovers to cut across the ice and create space to either generate a scoring opportunity or pass it to a teammate. He is also very patient and didn’t often make the wrong play under pressure. Now he may be slightly taller than fellow OHLer Marco Rossi, and I believe he isn’t as NHL ready as Rossi. Perfetti will need to add a lot of strength to play at the NHL level. He will need more time to develop, get bigger, stronger and faster before he makes the jump to the NHL level. He could use another two years at least before getting NHL games. He should go and dominate at the World Juniors and the OHL. I would like to see a bit more consistency in his game. A few games I watched of Perfetti, he would disappear for periods or even the majority of the game. Just because he sometimes disappears doesn’t mean he stops producing. An example of this would be the 2019-20 CHL top prospects game. I found he wasn’t very noticeable for the first two periods but still came away with a goal and bounced back with a much better third period. With regard to awards, Perfetti won the CHL and OHL scholastic player of the year in 2019-20. I really like Perfetti’s upside; with his flash and high end skill I could see him becoming an exciting top-6 winger at the NHL level. He should take his time to develop in order to maximize that skill and potential.
10. Jake Sanderson
The mobile two-way left shot defenceman is 10th on my list. Sanderson is a player that has really grown on me over the past year. The more I watch, the more I gain an appreciation for his game. He doesn’t do anything particularly flashy or dynamic but he is a really solid two way defender. Sanderson is a really strong straight line skater that can use his skating to defend opposing forwards or use his skating to jump up into the rush. I think something that has been slightly undervalued by most is his hockey sense. Sanderson has a really strong hockey IQ and it shows in his ability to read the play. He knows when to jump up into the rush or when to stay back and defend. He is really smart in using his strength and stick to defend opposing teams. He has a strong ability to knock pucks off sticks opposing or use his body to check players off the puck. His defensive awareness is among the best in the class and it will likely be his calling card in the NHL. His vision and playmaking ability is really good as well. He can break into the opposition’s end with his skating or making a pass. He sees the ice really well and completes passes that set up high danger scoring chances. Now I don’t think Sanderson will be a number one defenceman in the traditional sense, as a high scoring offensive d-man. I don’t see him as a high end power play quarterback at the NHL level but I do think that he could be a solid top pairing d-man that can provide offence and have a solid defensive game. He reminds me a bit of a Jacob Slavin type player. These guys are often undervalued but are still very good NHL players. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Sanderson get taken in the top 5 but that is a little rich for my blood. I think he is the type of player 7 or 8 years down the road we look back and he is one of the top 10-12 best players in this draft. Sanderson is a North Dakota commit and should develop there about two seasons before turning pro.
