WRITTEN BY- Ben
So here’s how this is going to work. Basically, I use ice time distribution (how often a particular player plays and where he starts the majority of his shifts) as a tell for how Head Coach DJ Smith feels about a player. Obviously there’s more that goes into these coaching decisions but over time, it provides helpful clues about a player’s role on the team.
Then, I compare that ice time distribution to the CF% (Basically a Chances +/-), and analyze what that might mean for a player. Of course, I do not claim this as an exact science (Or not even close to it) – but it is something to talk about, which isn’t easy to come by in August!
**CF%: Possession metric
**OZS: Offensive Zone Starts
**DZS: Defensive Zone Starts
BATHERSON: 47.6 CF%, 51.9% OZS, 48.1% DZS
First of all we’ve got Drake Batherson. After analysing his ice time distribution, we can see that DJ Smith sees Drake as a bonafide top 6 forward. If he was getting sheltered, his distribution would be greatly positive (like, 65% offensive zone draws), which usually results in players like Wiercioch getting a lot of love from the analytics community because it usually results in a high CF%. But, by using my own metrics, we can see that Batherson did not perform at the level Smith believes he can reach. This, to me, means that – as a true hockey expert, DJ Smith trusts Batherson in all situations. And by looking at his CF% being rather low-ish, I think it is fair to expect that Batherson has a much higher ceiling than most might think. Batherson will very possibly become a 60-70 point winger.
BRANNSTROM: 50.7 CF%, 50% OZS, 50% DZS
Then, we’ve got Erik Brannstrom. He’s an interesting case. So, at first sight – his numbers might seem encouraging. He played well. Probably better than most thought. But to me, I see that as a massive indicator that he might not become much more than what he already is. By the ice time distribution, we can see that Smith trusts Erik in all situations. But, by comparing his point production to his CF%, we can tell that the chances created while he’s on the ice are not as good as Batherson’s (For example). If his CF% would be something closer to what Batherson’s posting – we could expect Brannstrom to have a higher offensive ceiling. But because his CF% matches his ice time distribution – he seems to have reached his ceiling. Brannstrom is better than most people think. But, his ceiling seems to be lower than the general consensus. He seems to already be a decent second pairing 35 point all around defenceman. And that seems to be the player he’ll always be.
C.BROWN: 50.9 CF%, 38.4% OZS, 61.6% DZS
Connor Brown is quite the case. I see this as a possible tell that his career might surprise some people. Here’s why: At first sight, his goal total seems like a career spike that won’t necessarily replicate. Ala Zack Smith. But, the thing that seems so interesting to me is his CF%. We can see that, for the first time in the NHL – Connor Brown seems to be converting on his chances. According to these metrics, his goal totals “should” be what they were. Now let’s investigate Smith’s ice time distribution. This is pure speculation, but the way I see it is: Brown creates most of his offence off the rush. He is not an offensive zone specialist – per say. Although, this distribution does not mean Smith sees Brown as a low-offensive ceiling player. I think it indicates that Smith understands the type of player Brown is, whilst acknowledging how he creates offence. Here is a prime example of what a “Bad” coach might do with Brown in this instance: Sees Brown having an offensive spike: gives him a lot more offensive zone draws, which actually results in a lower production rate (Because he is not a possession player) then demotes him back to a defensive line. Instead, Smith gives Brown some players that create offence similarly. I expect Brown to be a career 20-25 goal, 50 point two way forward.
J.BROWN: 42.3 CF%, 42.3% OZS, 57.7% DZS
Josh Brown. He does not produce offencee, but he seems to take care of high danger offensive chances (By comparing his CF% and his +/-). Brown’s job is to control the front of his own goal, and by these metrics – he seems to have done a pretty good job at it. He will never be anything more than a 3rd pairing defensive defenceman. But, he is a player that fits Smith’s system very well.
CHABOT: 48.5 CF%, 42.5% OZS, 57% DZS
Thomas Chabot. This one kind of surprised me, and kind of didn’t. Because of the thin blueline – Chabot was meant to take a more defensive role than what he’s used to. And by looking at his CF% compared to his ice time distribution, Chabot actually became really good defensively this season. But the thing that stands out to me the most, is that he seems to not have reached his offensive ceiling. In other words: in a season where the blueline is solid, Chabot will be given much more offensive-zone ice time, which will result in a Norris calibre offensive season. I really believe Chabot has the potential to be a 65-70 point all-around defenceman.
FORMENTON: 42.1 CF%, 37.4% OZS, 62.6% DZS
Alex Formenton. I don’t think he’s got top 6 potential. I believe Smith instantly recognized that Formenton cannot produce offence from the offensive zone, which is why he’s been put into the mold of a bottom 6 energy winger. Formenton’s ceiling is a faster Connor Brown. But to become that, he must work as hard as Connor Brown – which, without taking anything away from Formenton’s work ethic, is unlikely. Alex is definitely expendable. A realistic expectation is that Formenton becomes a 15 goals, 15 assists type player. His speed can be a real asset defensively, though.
METE: 46.2 CF%, 49.2% OZS, 50.8% DZS
Victor Mete is where it becomes interesting to me. We can see that he’s got a very similar ice time distribution to Brannstrom. His CF% is lower, which means he’s probably got some untapped offensive potential. My theory is that the Sens see Brannstrom as a better defenceman at this exact moment – but that long term, they’ve got very similar upside. The reason why I find this interesting is because they decided to resign Mete. This, to me, points to the Sens realizing the value difference both have on the market, and understanding that both might become the same player. I think they might have chosen Mete going forward, as it would be kind of pointless having duplicates. I don’t think Brannstrom will be a Senator starting next season. Mete, much like Brannstrom, has potential to be a 35 point TWD. Although, unlike Brannstrom – he has not yet reached that level.
NORRIS: 47.3 CF%, 50.2% OZS, 49.8% DZS
Josh Norris has exciting numbers for me. Similar to Batherson, but the differences are what excites me the most. He spent a bit more time in the defensive zone, whilst still maintaining a near-identical CF% to Batherson’s. You might argue that he’s better defensively; but the quality of his chances were nearly identical to Batherson’s. Oh, he is also a year younger. He’s got a lot of untapped offensive potential. Based on all this information, and by how Smith trusted him as 1C in his rookie season, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to expect Norris to be a 30 goal, 70 point first line TWF.
PAUL: 50 CF%, 38.1% OZS, 61.9% DZS
Nick Paul. This is where the Connor Brown theory makes so much sense. Much like Brown, DJ Smith seems to have recognized that Paul produces most of his offencee off the rush. When you get such a lopsided distribution in ice time whilst still maintaining that 50 CF%, you are very good at creating offence off the rush. Paul and Brown worked very well when they played for Canada. I don’t have any reason to believe that the third line won’t be them centered by some other rush-specialist two way forward next season. We do have one… you’ll see.
STUTZLE- 48.7 CF%, 54.2% OZS, 45.8% DZS
Stützle has got very exciting numbers. At first glance they might seem a bit pedestrian, but the fact that he’s got numbers similar to Batherson’s at a MUCH younger age points to a potential star in the making. Think about it this way: Batherson produced this CF% with that ice time distribution after multiple seasons of being a star in the AHL. He also had multiple years of training and guidance by professionals to become the best player he can possibly be. Stützle is at the same point as Batherson development wise. That is insane to think. Imagine what a full summer of NHL training will do for him? Or that professional guidance from our coaching team. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up 65-70 points next season.
TIERNEY: 48.2 CF%, 33.1% OZS, 66.9% DZS
Tierney. Here is the first centre that plays a similar brand of hockey to Paul and Brown. He produces his offence off the rush. But, by looking at his CF% – we can see that he’s not nearly as good of a player as them. Offensively and defensively. On paper – he would do a fine fit with them. But by acknowledging his different tempo style of play, he is not an ideal fit on their line. If he’s not traded, he will be waived. I don’t see him fitting anywhere in our lineup.
TKACHUK: 49.4 CF%, 50.1% OZS, 49.9% DZS
Tkachuk. Much like Brannstrom, we can see that Tkachuk probably has reached his ceiling in the NHL. The difference is that Tkachuk is already a 300 shots player at this level. He does not drive the play at an elite level, and on his own he’s a 20-25 goal scorer that can put up 50 points. But, with an elite level playmaker – he will score ALOT of goals in the NHL. A player like Kuznetzov would be absolutely perfect. In other words: Brady is an elite level backboard.
WHITE: 52.1 CF%, 43.7% OZS, 56.3% DZS
White. White will not be traded. As you can tell by his stats, you can probably already see what I’m about to say: He’s the perfect centre for Brown and Paul. The thing with White, is that you can tell he’s got a higher CF% with a bit more of an offensive ice time distribution than Paul and Brown. That means that, not only can he produce on the rush, but he’s also got some pretty good possession skills in the offensive zone. A centre like that is needed for wingers like Brown and Paul, because it makes the line more versatile, whilst still maintaining their strength (Offence created off the rush). I really believe that White has got a solid career ahead of him. He’s got some similarities to Mike Fisher.
ZAITSEV: 45.7 CF%, 41.2% OZS, 58.8% DZS
Zaitsev. He is good at what he is: A defensive minded two way defenceman. By the analysis of his stats, we can tell he’s trusted by DJ Smith everywhere. His CF% shows that he’s the opposite of a liability considering his distribution. In my opinion, Zaitsev is totally worth his contract.
ZUB: 49 CF%, 36.9% OZS, 63.1% DZS
Zub. A really good top 4 defenceman. I mean, to post a near even CF% with such a defensively lopsided ice time distribution is amazing. It will be interesting seeing what will be done with Zub development wise. I think he’s got some untapped offensive potential that we might see as soon as next year. High end 2nd pairing TWD.
Realistic expectations heading into next season:
Tkachuk-Norris-X
Stützle-X-Batherson
Paul-White-Brown
Formenton-Kelly/Bishop-Watson
Chabot-Zaitsev
Mete-Zub
Del Zotto-Brown
Holden
Holes:
1RW: Playmaking RW would be ideal.
2C: I think Brannstrom will be packaged along side other things to get a good top 6 centre. I think they will try to add Tierney as a salary dump. Someone like Rickard Rakell in Anaheim should be a target for Dorion.
Pure speculation, and just for fun: Rakell (With an extension) for Brannstrom + Tierney + 2nd. I think Rakell is perfect, because he’s as much of a winger as he is a center. This means Smith can gradually utilize Stutzle as a centerman without breaking up the line (Makes it easier for Timmy).
