WRITTEN BY SENSCHIRP READER- AutoTurris
Well, it’s officially the halfway point of the season and I figured it that it is time again to revisit everyone’s favourite healthy scratch; none other than #46 himself.
Before the season began, I wrote a piece describing how Wiercioch and Karlsson were a match made in heaven from a Corsi perspective, as well as how the little TOI they had together should be expanded so we can see what their true potential as. Then with the Methot injury, I thought all the stars had aligned and #46 was a sure bet to draw in beside #65.
Alas, no.
Although, with the coaching change, Wiercioch has seen significantly more time with our captain, but in fact his overall TOI has remained static since last year. In 2013-2014, he capped out at 670:16 5v5, and this year he has played only 335:53. Essentially to a tee the exact same time played, which makes his results all the more impressive but equally frustrating. The enticing thing for me about Wiercioch has always been his overall utility. Offensive flare but can be defensively mindful. And offensively, Wiercioch has not slipped at all, with his GF60 (goals scored by the team while the player is on the ice per 60 minutes) not wavering at all from 2013-2014 to 2014-2015, clocking in at 0.836 and 0.834 respectively. These are just Wiercioch’s raw numbers in themselves, giving credence to him as a steady puck mover – compare that to Karlsson’s 0.7368 GF60 thus far this season.
But what about defensively? Wiercioch has been under the microscope a bit this year, with his defensive mistakes being amplified by the fact that he is deemed an expendable member of an overcrowded backend. The question I would like to raise is; has he really had a bad season defensively? I’m sure we can all recall instances that #46 has made a mistake, yet the plural of anecdote is not data. What do the numbers say about Wiercioch?
Defensively, Wiercioch has hit the ground running. From 2013-2014, with a GA60 and CA60 (goals against and Corsi against per 60 minutes) of 0.746 and 19.07 respectively, #46 has made strides in his own zone and has a GA60 and CA60 of 0.417 and 16.32. The trend is evident. Wiercioch can play defense and deserves to be in the lineup in his own right every night. The really compelling aspect about Wiercioch’s play is the potential he still holds by being paired with Captain Karlsson.
Last season, Karlsson and Wiercioch played only 58:40 together 5v5. And their numbers were so impressive it was almost impossible, which is close to reality as the presumably the sample size was so small that the numbers were inflated beyond belief. One would guess that by allowing them to play more you’d see a reduction in their numbers. And, unfortunately really, that’s what we see. This season, they have played just over double (136:23) time of 5v5 hockey. With Wiercioch and Karlsson playing with one another, their 2013-2014 GF60 went from 1.704 (which is mind boggling good, yet probably misleading) to a GF60 of 1.026 this year. Quite a significant drop, but that number is still nothing to turn up your nose to especially for defensemen. Yet interestingly, their defensive numbers did not suffer the same fate as their offensive. There has still been a slight decrease in their GA60 of 0.341 from 2013-2014 to 2014-2015 GA60 of 0.440. The increase in the sample size most likely had a vast amount of influence in lowering the numbers overall, but the less marked change in the defensive numbers are extremely encouraging. Like a broken record, it sure would be nice to see what these two can do together.
Of course, with Methot beginning to draw back in finally, this becomes more and more of a pipe dream for #46 enthusiasts. Interestingly, Wiercioch and Karlsson are a better pairing both offensively and defensively than the 2013-2014 Methot-Karlsson pairing, and the fact that #4 draws into the lineup over #46 is a travesty in itself; I trust I don’t need numbers to tell you that. All in all, I really can’t make his argument any more compelling. 46-65 should be our top pairing, it’s just that simple.
Mad yet?
In all honesty, I wrote this piece just after we had played our 41st game, and unfortunately before Karlsson took beast-mode and showed it a whole new level. Obviously Wiercioch-Karlsson is a nice fantasy to have, but even the most devout believers can be shown the light. When Karlsson is with Methot he goes to another world. He is God-like, unstoppable; and whether that is directly due to the defensive insulation Methot provides, the jury is still out.
We have Norris EK back.
So, what then should we do with #46? 2-5 has pretty much shored up as our #2 pair and they look pretty good and Patrick just can’t play with Gryba – they just don’t mesh. There’s only one option left; move him. Phillips is on his way out, Bingo guys have to start drawing in and Wiercioch will fetch the best return. Afterall, he is the odd man out. I’m suspecting we haven’t heard much on this because BM is waiting for Methot’s fate to be finalized before rushing into anything but if Methot gets inked, I’m sorry to say that it’s likely goodbye to my good friend. With his numbers, he could conceivably fetch us a 2nd from a team needing a PMD and at this point that’s okay. Wiercioch deserves more and a shot to play some real hockey. We’ll have to wait and see if this story takes any crazy turns, but if Methot extends I can see the Avs being a likely recipient for our young D man. Time will tell.
And as always, thanks for reading.
