The free-falling Ottawa Senators are fading fast in the Eastern Conference.
In fact, HockeyViz.com now has their playoff chances at 1%. That’s right around where they were last year when the miracle run started and at almost the exact time of the season. It was on February 26, 2015 that Andrew Hammond shut out the Anaheim Ducks and kick-started one of the most unlikely stretches in the history of the National Hockey League.
Probably not gonna happen again…
The Senators are now eight points back of the second Wild Card spot and have played two more games. A quick glance in the other direction shows that they’re just seven points out of last place and have played three more games than that team (the Leafs). It should be pretty clear to Bryan Murray and his staff which direction they should take leading up to this year’s deadline and I honestly think their approach would have been the same regardless of where they sat in the standings.
Add if it’s someone that fits in long term. Sell if someone comes knocking about any players outside of the team’s core.
A quick run-down of some stories to keep an eye on leading up to the deadline.
NEXT YEAR’S BUDGET
Based on some preliminary projections, the salary cap could drop by as much as $4 million next season. How that impacts the Ottawa Senators and their internal budget is going to be an interesting story to follow this summer. We know that this won’t be a cap team under Eugene Melnyk but if the rest of the league is coming down, does the Owner plan to adjust the budget accordingly? Based on some of the rumours out there, that may be exactly what’s in store heading into next year. I’ve mentioned this before but that’s why those savings obtained through the Phaneuf deal are so important. The Sens already have north of $53 million committed next year. If the internal budget comes down $4 mil to like, $58 million, it doesn’t leave Management a ton of wiggle room this off season.
BRYAN MURRAY’S FUTURE
During a recent interview on TSN1200, Eugene Melnyk suggested that on February 15th and 16th, he would meet with Bryan Murray to talk about his future with the organization. Today, Dave Cameron somewhat mysteriously missed practice to “organize some meetings”. The players then showed up late for a season ticket holder event due to internal meetings. It’s pretty clear there are some important discussions going on within the organization this week and as Melnyk and Murray have mentioned, part of that is the future of the General Manager. Succession planning is well underway within the front office but next steps will depend on what Bryan Murray wants to do and more importantly, how he’s feeling.
ON JONATHAN DROUIN
Last week, in the hours following the Dion Phaneuf trade, I had a couple different contacts reach out to suggest that now the Senators would step up their pursuit of Jonathan Drouin. Then the next day, one outlet went so far as to suggest that the Ottawa Senators were in fact the favourites to land the disgruntled 20 year old. A week has passed since those rumours first surfaced and it doesn’t seem like a whole lot has changed. Ottawa is very much interested but they certainly aren’t the only team in the picture. Winnipeg. Minnesota. Montreal. St Louis. Still a bunch of teams hanging around. I’ve been told that the Senators really don’t want to include Thomas Chabot or Colin White in the deal. Really makes you wonder who would go the other way if those two (and Cody Ceci) really are off the table.
WHAT ABOUT WIERCIOCH?
While the Senators obviously aren’t saying so publicly, I think they’d would deal Wiercioch in a heartbeat. He’s a restricted free agent this summer and is coming off a season where he earned $2 million. It’s obviously been a disappointing year for Wiericoch from a production stand-point and with Dion Phaneuf now in the picture, there’s not exactly a whole lot of room on that blueline. The Sens almost traded Wiercioch at last year’s deadline (to Colorado), tried again earlier this year and will certainly be listening in the next few weeks. Some decent defenceman have passed through waivers lately (Yannick Weber and Christian Ehrhoff, for example) so it’s hard to imagine there being much interest in Wiercioch on the trade market.
ZACK SMITH’S TRADE VALUE
Zack Smith has been one of the team’s most pleasant surprises this year. In a season where so many players have failed to live up to expectations, Smith has quietly put together a solid season. He has 12 goals which is just three shy of his career high. And that career-year has people speculating that maybe Smith could be moved at the deadline. It’s a long shot. There’s no doubt teams would have interest but it’s pretty clear that the organization thinks quite highly of Smith. He’s versatile and he’s still pretty affordable although he’s starting to get up there for a fourth line centre. Smith will earn $2.35 million in the final year of his contract. Teams will call about Smith in the next couple weeks and the Senators will have to decide if it’s time to move on.
TOUGH DECISION ON CHRIS NEIL
This is going to be a tough one and based on some of the discussion I’ve seen to this point, it’s pretty clear that fans will be divided on the issue. Chris Neil is a UFA at the end of this season and has given no indication that he’s planning on retiring any time soon. He’s re-established himself as a solid fourth liner this season and is certainly a player that would draw some interest at the deadline. The return would likely be a mid-round draft pick at best but there would definitely be some calls from contending teams. The question is- does Neil want to go? There were rumblings earlier in the year that the two sides have had very preliminary talks about an extension. Regardless of what happens here, you can be sure Murray is going to talk it out with Neil and make sure both sides are on the same page before any decision is made.
