Obviously the Sens can go a couple different directions in these negotiations. They can try to sign Karlsson to a short term deal at a higher cap number to avoid getting locked into a long term deal with the current CBA uncertainty.
Or they can go long term, and lock up the club’s top defender for the foreseeable future. Both approaches have their benefits to the organization and the player.
So it’s time for you to play the role of General Manager. To enter the contest, you must email me the number of years, the total value of the contract and as a tiebreaker, the date the deal is signed on. In the event that multiple people guess the correct number of years and dollars, we’ll go to the date signed as the tie breaker.
All entries should be sent to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it and MUST include the following;
- 1) YOUR NAME
- 2) NUMBER OF YEARS
- 3) TOTAL VALUE
- 4) DATE SIGNED
The prize is something a little different this time around and is more in line with the season. The winner will receive two golf passes for The Marshes and will join a foursome with SensChirp and the Wisers Guy (Date and time to be determined). I realize golf may not be everyone’s cup of tea so as an alternative, the winner will have the option of taking a couple 300 lvl tickets to a Sens game next season.
The choice is yours!
Feel free to post your predictions in the comment section afterwards but only those that are emailed in will be considered. The deadline for contest entries is Friday, May 25 at 10:00 AM.
Good luck!
- While the news of Luke Richardson’s hiring dominated the headlines yesterday, there was another significant piece of news provided by Sens Assistant GM Tim Murray. It won’t come as a huge surprise, but according to comments made by Murray and relayed through a tweet by Joy Lindsay, the Senators have submitted their qualifying offers to all of the team’s restricted free agents with the exception of defenceman Craig Schira. That means Karlsson, Foligno, O’Brien, Daugavins, Da Costa, Gryba and Filatov.
- There still haven’t been any official announcements from the organization, but word is Jean Gabriel Pageau has joined Darren Kramer and Jakub Culek as players that have signed their entry level contracts. Pageau split last season between Gatineau and Chicoutimi.
- Jason Spezza is up for Play of the Year over on TSN and is locked in a close battle with Jeff Skinner. Head over to TSN to cast your vote(s) and help make sure Spezza moves on to the next round!
Not sure how this works, exactly. If they submit a qualifying offer, does that mean they retain his NHL rights, should he decide to return?
I also just submitted my vote for Spezza. I thought I did it already, but it let me do it again. Maybe I was wrong the first time, lol
http://www.tsn.ca/showdown/2012/
why the hell are we looking after his clothes and why the fuck is he wearing tights in the first place?
Bwahahahaha...
Chirp, am I understanding this right, the 1st criteria is years and not salary? So I could guess 7 years, 1 mil and if it's 7 years I win if no one else guessed that term even though my salary is way off?
Yes, they retain his rights for the NHL and no other NHL team can sign him during that time. If he comes back to the NHL in the next year it has to be with the Sens. It also ensures he'll remain an RFA for a couple more years, meaning the Sens can keep qualifying him I believe until his UFA status kicks in or he's finally ready for the NHL and becomes a normal player.
Hmm, well that's how I was thinking it would work but that sounds like contest circumvention to me :)
Is there a better way to do it, that I'm missing? All entries so far have been fairly realistic and cover just about every potential term. Open to suggestions.
If nobody wins we can have a rollover competition.
I'd say nothing wrong with the way you suggested it, you should first have the year right, that's a given. I mean, we only have at least 10 options for it, and I'm sure out of all the guesses someone will get it right. So from there, you take everyone who has the year right (I'm sure you'll have more than one) and decide based on who gets the total value the closest. If someone decides to put 1M as the total, that's his/her problem. Odds of someone getting the value correct are not as high, so you may just have to pick closest without going over type of thing. If you do happen to get 2 or more with the right year and Value (damn good if someone gets it) then use the closest to Date Signed as you're deciding factor.
That was the alternative I was considering.
What do people think?
I'd suggest doing term/value combined as the first criteria. If nobody gets it right on, then choose the closest.
For example, if the actual contract is 10 years/$100 million, and two guesses are 9 years/$100 million, and 10 years/$9 million, you provide two sets of tickets or two rounds of golf.
It's quite easy.
haha, very true. It's your contest, so I'm good with whichever works best for you, just wanted to ensure I understood it properly.
It's hard either way because is 6yr 42 mil vs 7yr 45 mil more correct if the final number is 7yr 48mil? The first is the correct annual salary, the 2nd is the correct term.
Could do something with cap hit, so salary/year average, then correct term and then the final tiebreaker of the date it was signed. Just a thought, but I'm good either way, just wanted to get the main criteria right, which you mentioned is term.
Hahah and tee times at The Marshes whenever I damn well please.
How about this?
If the actual value, years and caphit are V, Y, and C, respectively. And the guess is V', Y' and C', then the following formula will give a nice value out of 3.
Score = 3- (ABS(V-V')/MAX( V,V') + ABS(Y-Y')/MAX(Y ,Y') + ABS(C-C')/MAX(C,C'))
Might seem complicated, but it should provide a way to see who is actually closest and its unlikely to result in ties... unless people have the EXACT same entries...
Yeah, I'm an engineer... so what? We like hockey too!
No harm in trying, right?
If I win, will you cover my flight from Calgary too!
Since those are always easy to come by!
I still think it should be whoever gets both 2&3 right wins and if many people only get 1 of the 2 (likely) closest to the date of signing wins? and if more than 1 person gets 2&3 right than closest to the date. And if both pick the same date, fight to the death.
I think its fine SC, nobody is going to get the year alone and win, many other people will also have the correct year and the salary is the determining factor. If a tie then yes, go closest date signed, if still tie, split the prize.
add the term to the contract value
so the 65 could be 5 year 60mill or 10 year 55 mill
If I think it would be a 7 year 42 mill contract (cap hit of 6mil) then Id email you with an answer of 49
and then use your date the contract was signed as a tiebreaker
And for sake of argument, always round up or down to closest million
so if its 7 year 42.75 mill then answer is 7+43 for 50
Does the guess also include bonuses?
I would also like to see cap hit used some way instead of the # of years being the first tie-breaker.
And i'd add stuff for a tiebreaker like no trade clause, limited trade, performance bonuses, etc...
Anyone else anxious for the season to start?
I say this wins just by the Algebra equation
I'd love to have him but the price would be steep. After Letang, he was their best defenceman last year. Very affordable contract too.
That's what I'm saying!!!
I agree, it would all depend on the price. He'd be a nice consolation to not getting Suter, but the Pens may want a decent return and I'm not sure he's worth paying that much when we could've had him for free.
There are a few things working in our favour if we do pursue him. 1) He has a no trade clause and we know that when he signed with Pittsburgh, he had earlier stated he would love to play with his brother. 2) They are in salary cap hell and no one is going to take Paul Martin off their hands. 3) They have Niskanen and Despres moving up their depth charts and have a bit of a log jam on D with Letang, Orpik & Martin all earning good money.
There is definitely an opportunity to trade for him and I think he would be a solid addition to replace Kuba. Maybe they would be interested in Weircoch so they don't lose depth, and they free up $4 million in cap space.
My short answer...No. :)
Good answer...
So many people have already submitted entries. Rules aint changin now!
I agree
He would be a good acquisition. Save Pittsburgh on their cap.. and they have been rumoured to also be after Parise if he hits UFA. Don't know how they fit that in...
Question is.. what would it cost the Sens?
Why would the B-Sens not qualify Schira? Giving him a chance elsewhere? No room on the team for him?
So qualifying Karlsson now stops offer sheets.. so now the Sens have lots of time to discuss contract...
In Pitts, he did show he's a solid shutdown defenseman, which Ottawa is looking for. His 4M isn't the worst in the league. But I'd be more concerned with his concussion and injuries that took him out of the rest of the season, and now he's undergone hip surgery.
Sure, his Bro has been under the knife a lot and managed to bounce back in the end. But with it being so fresh, I'm not sure I'd take a gamble on someone I couldn't insert into the lineup right away.
Sandy, the story I've heard is that BM was targetting dmen, in order, Gonchar, Michalek, Volchenkov were his first 3 priorities. Gonchar was the first call made and wanted an answer asap so BM signed him and the rest is history. Ottawa was Michalek's first choice, but BM only wanted 1 of them at the time.
Didn't realize he just had hip surgery...
and yeah, forgot about the injuries, that could change things
The story I heard involved a preacher, an Irishman and a stripper playing poker in a bar... but I don't think that's related to your story.
Ok? Gonchar was signed less than 5 minutes into free agency, I don't think there's much doubt about it, but sure.
Six Years
6.5 mil
signed at the draft
Hey Nicholas, make sure to send your prediction by email otherwise it will not be included. Thanks!
You think he will sign a 6-yr deal for a total value of $6.5M? That's a a little over $1M/yr.
Wow! That's very optimistic
This isn't am easy contract cause he is still so young/new change.
i gotta disagree with you, specifically with the "sign kuba again which will cost us nothing" kuba'a cap hit was 3.7mill on a pretty succeful season for him. I assume he wants to stay rather than test the FA market. i really think kuba will be asking for 3-4 mill.
And Kuba will undoubtedly look to cash in on last year. He might be willing to stay in Ottawa for some sort of discount but not a deep enough one to make it anything other than Murray's last resort (I hope).
Says at the end of the post. Tomorrow at 10:00 AM.
6 years
$33 million
June 28
And reasonably front loaded or a signing bonus that won't get clawed back if the players end up with a salary rollback under the new CBA.
Here's hoping to sign Karlsson for many years to come. But is $5 M or $5.5. M too little and not enough?
All good points and it's essentially a gamble on both sides.
If Murray gets Karlsson to sign for 10 years at $4M each will Karlsson (and his agent) regret after two more Norris wins early in that contract? If Murray instead goes for a three year deal for $6M each will he regret it when the next contract is for $9M per year?
My gut tells me that Karlsson's value will only go up over the next 10 years (with the odd slip but in general he'll improve) so I think if you're Murray you project what it might cost year-by-year and shoot for a long contract that ends up costing much less in the long run.
Year by year if Karlsson was paid for "last year" he might end up with something like:
$2.5M, $3M, $4M, $5M, $7M, $5M, $6M, $7M, $8M ...
With some years being "stock rising" and other years being "bad year". Should be interesting to see what he signs for eventually and how often either side regrets it.
Funny thing, I can't recall anyone ever questioning the salary Alfie gets (other than re-spending his cap hit when he reitres). Or Spezza or Phillips really. MM9 is seen as a bargain by most and everyone else we have is either still on their rookie money or in the Kuba/Gonch category of being overpaid (in most fans opinions).
Let's hear it then genius! Or do you need your capologist and assistant GM to review it first?
Just yanking your chain T.
2 - 4 years
3 - 26.50 mil total
4 - June 21st
Also Jason Garrison would be an option.
Hmmm in 4 more years he'll be 25, 4 years at $26.5mil is $6.625Mil per.
U want to sign him before he hits 7 years of NHL employment which makes him a UFA?
need a contest I can enter lol I dont live close enough to Ottawa to win these prizes lol
Stay tuned
Sound strategy but I think EK65 is a "Sen for life" so if I were Murray I wouldn't break my back to get the deal at 4 years. It's not a bad length for other reasons as well since the kid is just about to turn 22 but as you mention there would be risks.
I'm thinking they'll want to sign him longer - 7 years.
I can't imagine Karlsson bitching at a breakdown of something like
year 1 6.00 mil
year 2 6.50 mil
year 3 7.00 mil
year 4 7.00 mil
Because really if he lives up to the hype and continues to play amazingly(which I hope he finds away to do) I have a feeling he will be the focal point of teams defence next season(like the rangers did) then after those four years I can't imagine anything under 7 mil a season for ages.
Chirp grabbed post #65 - fitting.
I can't see the new CBA being radically different from the current one. Maybe I'm missing something but is either side really benefiting a lot more than the other? I can't see the cap going down - or if it does it will be right back up to its current level in no time anyway. Can't really see any other clauses added that would really change things a great deal. The only thing I expect is some sort of limitations to keep things from continuing to skyrocket and prevent the "unfair" Hossa-style deals.
But I guess it is still an unknown so might be prudent to play it cautious just in case.
- 6 years
- $37.25 million
- June 29th 2012
- cap hit $6.20 million
I really dont think 5.5 million is enough. I will be SHOCKED if they are able to pull that off
That's not Math, it's arithmetic
He's got two years of NHL service now, add 4 makes 6 so he'd still be a year shy of UFA would he not?
-$65 million
-cap hit $6.50 million
-06/05/2012 or 05/31/2012 (birthday present)
everything goes with his number 65
Are you serious Hax, you should know better than that. This was his 3rd year in the league! So yes, it would make 7 with a 4yr contract.
He's got 3 years under his belt.
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Ahh well.
My bad. Tcharger's thinking and the fact that the TSN page has "NHL Seasons = 2" for Karlsson had me fooled.
But yes of course he just finished his third season.
Ahh yes the dilluded info of Toronto Sports Network, no worries Hax, your still an upstanding citizen!
My guess is the Sens would want to "contract" him passed his 7th year so they dont have to deal with him being a UFA until further on in his career. BUT, you can bet camp K65 is looking at ways to counter that, its all a big game.
Yeah especially now that it would be a three year deal I say screw the UFA concern and just get a solid deal done. Realistically we're not letting him go as a UFA anyway (unless he doesn't become the player we assume he will).
Ah ok, ya TSN can be useless sometimes!
Kane is also up for contact talks.
Just a bit of info...