How the Lockout Loses JOBs
The headline is misleading.
At this point during the CBA negotiations, the impact on players, owners, the fans and employees have been well versed and noted. The headline suggests that this post will focus on the impact on employees that rely on hockey to provide income for their families. It does not. Although I do not want to diminish this impact, I wanted to explore something else I don't think has been discussed. The impact of the lockout on players like Jim O'Brien (JOBs).
This topic can easily be thrown in the "who cares?" pile, but I am not one of those types of fans. I really value the contributions a player like JOB can provide to a team. Even though he's a third or fourth liner, he has enough skill to break through with some important goals for the Sens. He won't score 25 or 30 goals, but his importance shouldn't be devalued. Now, I really don't think his job is in jeopardy, but had the lockout happened last year, I don't think he may make it to the NHL.
This is how I see the life of a tweener hockey player.
For the most part, a player is drafted and thrown into the prospect pool of their respective teams. There are exceptions, but most draftees have a part of their game they need to work on or find their niche to make it to the NHL. JOB crafted himself into a hard-working forechecker that has decent size, good at both ends of the rink and can kill penalties. The reason I don't think he'd be in the NHL had the lockout occurred last year is that he found an opportunity through injuries last year. He was able to come up, play well, and ultimately prove his worth as a full-time NHLer. If the lockout occurred, the Sens depth may have passed him by. He would have been labelled as an AHLer and may never get to play in the NHL with regularity.
I think I can make my point a little clearer with another example - Mike Hoffman.
Now, I've been a fan of this player for awhile. I've watched him in exhibition games in years' past and really loved his skating and offensive skill. I was surprised when I followed him and he eventually was sent down to the East Coast League. He may have deserved it, but I was nevertheless surprised. Is Hoffman an NHL player? I'm hoping he is. I know there are some in the SensChirp community that he has the opportunity to surprise people in training camp. The problem is that he may not get the chance.
This is where the lockout hurts those that are trying to break into the league. These guys are on the verge of proving themselves, but never get the chance. The season may eventually start, but with a team like Ottawa, the window of opportunity is short.
There are prospects that are getting closer and closer to their own opportunities. With a lockout, they have time to pass Hoffman on the depth chart. If their ceiling is higher, a player like Hoffman gets tagged "AHLer" and may find himself on the outside even though he's a capable NHL player. Again, this could fall into the "who cares?" pile, but I think Hoffman has the type of skill set that could surprise people. It's not a guarantee that he achieves his potential, but he needs a chance. It's something he doesn't get with the inevitable looming lockout.
For the discussion board, who else misses their chance?
- For those that missed it last night, I have set up a GM Connected league (Xbox 360) on the recently released NHL 13. Search "SensChirp League" and send a join request and I'll accept them later tonight. Spots will be handed out on a first come, first serve basis so grab a team quickly.
Hoffman is an intriguing option as he's considered a bit of a fringe prospect. I like him, much like you do, but even with a lockout this year he will get an opportunity next year and if he can't earn a spot at that point he probably wouldn't have earned one right now either.
Again though these are fringe players. I think Andre Petersson might be the player most affected by a lockout this year, as his upside is for top 6-9 and next year there will be a huge amount of prospects vying for those spots.
At the end of the day though, it's hard to feel bad for a 4th liner who loses his shot because of a lockout, as to me that shows he was never really in the team's plans and was likely to have been a 1 year fill in anyways. Just my opinion.
According to some speculation I've heard, this camp may have been his last crack with the organization and he planned on looking to Sweden if he couldn't make the team this year.
If last year was cancelled, he might have had a harder time. I was thinking that JOB might have a harder time cracking the lineup this year when you have Zbad, Silfverberg, and Stone possibly pushing for spots. With a year under his belt, he's pretty secure. I just think a guy like Hoffman may miss his chance.
I agree about Petersson.
Players become AHLers for life for a reason. It's not like getting a shot in the NHL is the only way you can prove you belong there. Obviously it's a factor but the amount of time that the coaches spend working with these guys both off and on the ice means it's highly unlikely that true quality gets left behind.
The reason certain sens players like Hoffman or Petrsson might be overlooked is the sheer number of decent forward prospects the Senators have in the organisation at the moment, that isn't a lock out issue. That's just great organisational depth.
O'Brien is going to get his shot because he has a 1 way deal. Fringe players on 2 ways always get shunted around, the lock out may exacerbate that or push players back a year but I actually think that for players like Hoffman a lock out is almost a freebie. He has an extra year to show sens management that he deserves to stick around, an extra year to strengthen and develop, an extra year to be comfortable in himself and his game before being asked to play a significant role in the NHL.
Good-i would much rather him sit at home and play with his kids than play pointless (from the senators point of view) games where all he can really do is create more wear and tear on a 40 year old body.
Do you think if there's a season this year, and Hoffman gets his chance, does he still keep his spot next year? Or would he have just been a 1 year place holder anyways? In other words do you see him as someone who will have real NHL success or be a temp player?
With Noesen, Puempel, Stone, Silfverberg, Zibanejad, Prince, Da Costa, I'm not sure there's room for Hoffman next year even if he made the team this year. He would have to outperform either Zach Smith, Condra, Greening or JOB to even have a chance at staying around long term. Though if he can outperform any of those 4, I'd be more than happy to see him stick around!
They include the following;
Andre Benoit, Patrick Cannone, Tyler Eckford, Hugh Jessiman and Nathan Lawson.
He may be a 1 year stop-gap for a team like Ottawa, but it doesn't mean that he's not an NHL player. If Bobby Butler can get a chance in Jersey, a Hoffman could do the same. I'm just saying he would have to prove his worth and it won't be long before he's passed on the depth chart. He needs to show his value now, or else get dubbed an AHLer.
This could be the year he gets a chance to show he's worth an NHL contract. I feel bad for these guys because they have a chance to make 10x the amount in the NHL even if it's for a short period of time.
Ah ok, thanks for elaborating. Makes sense if you feel these are true NHL caliber players. I think on any team they're just temp fillers for the most part.
I guess a player could make an NHL career out of moving from team to team filling in the hole on their 3rd or 4th line, and missing out their 1 shot to show they can could be costly, but it's rare that happens anyways. After a few years of mediocrity and going between AHL/NHL these players go to Europe where they can still make a good paycheque or yes as you said they get dubbed AHLers.
I guess I just don't buy tickets to see our fringe players, but it's a great story when one works out.
I also joined Chirp. I'm hoping this GM connected league will save this game, I've been pretty unimpressed with it so far.
I picked the the Blues.
Yes me too, not super impressed I don't know if you played ultimate team in previous games, but I love that game mode and was addicted to it last year. And this
year they completely ruined it.
I'm curious how they "ruined" it? I've played very little of it in the past, and I've played about 5 games of it last night. Seemed ok, but I've got nothing to compare it to, but it kind of looked the same as other years as far as I can tell (aside from giving you more stuff from your favorite team, which I was ok with as I got Cowen who is pretty good in NHL 13).
I'll have to pick my team for the GM connected league tonight, hopefully there's not just the leafs left...meh, I suck anyways, so maybe everyone would actually enjoy beating me as the leafs GM. I haven't played this game mode yet, so what is it? I know there's different ways of playing it, are we playing 1-on-1 type thing?
I also watched the fehr interview an hour or so ago...wow...few people can talk for 15 minutes and say absolutely nothing...gotta love lawyers
In Bingo, I think Da Costa, Cannone, Caporusso & Petersson have to have good yrs to stay in the organization or they could all be gone next yr. Prince, Pageau could end up in the East Coast League since Bingo will have too many forwards. Hoffman led Bingo in scoring last yr & will be a first callup IMO. While Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Lehner & Stone should all do well I'm hoping that Grant, Gryba, Dzuirzynski, Blood & Wiercioch all have a break out yr in Bingo. I hope Bingo makes another Calder Cup run under Luke.
From Twitter: Lupul: 'At some point there is a time when fans will get fed up & hopefully these negotiations can start getting a little more serious here'
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How out of touch is he exactly? He doesn't think the fans are fed up now? Well the fed up will turn to anger the second the lockout happens.
The record revenue they made last year will be a thing of the past... never to be again.
Don't take the fans for granted. The last lockout was for getting a salary cap and survival of the NHL.
If I hear Fehr once more on -- they got the salary cap, we gave up 24%... yeah they did.. BUT in the long run the players won that CBA given the record rise in revenues.
This lockout for the fans is more on perception. Perception that both sides are greedy.
They risk much letting this lockout happen. If the players are not happy with the offer... then sell your homes, pack up your wife & kids and move to Europe permanently. The NHL will be in ruins anyway. Play there for less than the NHL is offering right now. There are no player unions in Europe so you either play for what they offer or you don't play. The choice is yours.
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Leafs' Lupul: 'We’re definitely worried about fans & both sides probably want to apologize to them right now'.
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I don't believe that one for a second. We are a PAWN and that is all we are.
i think peterson and lehner will do much better having more swedes around them this year, this bingo team will allow our prospects to grow to a whole new level.
i hope the ahl steps up their broadcasts and offers an hd product worth spending money on and i will gladly pay to watch it.
I do agree that some fringe players might miss out on a chance if the lockout is extended, but as with the Butler example, I think it's more a case of them not getting a chance with us but still getting a shot elsewhere. But certainly some will get lost in the shuffle.
Petersson is a good example - if the entire year is lost and he ends up going back to Sweden for good that could be the end of it (though if he lights it up who's to say he doesn't give the NHL another shot?) Whereas all signs right now (if there were no lockout) point to him making a decent push for a roster spot this year - or at worst making enough noise to end up traded to a team that will give him a roster spot if he gets beaten out by the likes of Zibanejad, Silvferberg and Stone.
Good topic for discussion.
"29 teams have made the playoffs in the last 7 years, the league is balanced under the cap"
how do toronto fans feel about that statement?
I think if this season is lost that one player that will be hurt by it will be DaCosta.
you will have Stone, Zbad, Pageau, Culek, coming in, with Hoffman Peterson alreay in the fold.
this could push him down the depth chart, and leave out looking in
gary betman
"29 teams have made the playoffs in the last 7 years, the league is balanced under the cap"
how do toronto fans feel about that statement?
SUCK IT PHANEUF! Even their Soccer team is the first one eliminated from the playoffs in the whole league. They suck at everything! Whatever they touch in that city turns to mush. POOR BASTARDS! lol
A long lockout allows prospects to develop and push for a position -- when & if the NHL comes back.
I have a feeling this is going to be another season lost... Winter Classic or not.
The NHLPA wants to play in the 2014 Olympics. Question, if there is no CBA then they can go -- or does Hockey Canada require them to be playing NHL hockey?
They can go, there is no requirement to be an NHL player to go to the Olympics, in Canada there just aren't any players not in the NHL that are better than those that are.
A few of us have played games against computer run teams to get the ball rolling. Those teams are still up for grabs though even with a game or two played.
Will accept requests when I get home tonight.
And if there is a season next year, when Gonchar's and Lundin's contracts come off the books, Wiercioch will have to beat out BoroCop and Ceci for a spot. This was his shot this year.
They just want more money and more control, what a great partnership they are creating. Last time around NHLPA couldn't compare to NBA and NFL, this time the NHL is constantly comparing but saying not the MLB. If the players cave now, they'll be caving even further in 6years.
What a mess!
Chirp, how many people submitted a request for the Blues? Was there only one? I'm in class now so I can't check it yet haha
There were two actually. What's your gamer tag?
For example, Wiercioch might play all year with Cowen in Bingo and develop into a great partner for him that carries over into the next season.
So while it's definitely true that some players get screwed by the lockout it can have the opposite effect as well.
Still a great post and good discussion.
You're like a broken record Heatley and you have no idea about math, let alone economics.
Go buy a Marlies jersey. I would say Leafs jersey except chances are they won't play a game until after early 2014.
Might wanna hustle home! Can't remember whether you got it or not and I'm not online.
I didn't get St Louis but I just put in a request for Anaheim.
Heartbreaking loss for the Sens. I place full blame on Ms. Chirp using the internet at the worst possible time.
You're in now!
Thanks for your patience!
He suggested that the players's share be reduced by 17.5%,
which would go from $1.880 Billon ( 57% ) to $1.550 Billion,
a reduction of $330,000,000.00 , or 46 %
A reduction of 17.5%, which Fehr and the players do not agree is a fair offer.
Therefore, based on the $3.300 Billion total, this would give the NHL owners a total of #1.750 Billion.
This would tip the scale, and heavily favour the NHL owners!
So, why did Fehr not at least make a counter offer, and keep the negotiations going ???
He should have countered a reduction of $165,000,000.00
and it would have reduced the players'share to a respectable $1,650,000.00 or close to 50% !!
These guys are both elite lawyers, but lousy negotiators !!
As Bettman said.. that 43% is what the Owners have been receiving out of which they have to pay ALL of the expenses.
The more I watched the Lockout 2012 special tonight on TSN the madder I got. On Sportscentre there was a little comment from Spezza -- in which he said that the players don't care about any deadline. Really Jason? That deadline will lose you fans... The Ottawa Senators could be very negatively affected by this lockout.
Paul Bissonnette (Biznasty on twitter):
Paul Bissonnette@BizNasty2point0
Fans. The players understand your frustration. But at the end of the day we are fighting for our futures, not yours. That's the reality.
Really -- well Mr. Biznasty -- without the FANS you have no fucking future.
Lupul suggesting Bettman is trying to turn the fans against the NHLPA. What the hell has the NHLPA been doing for the past 2 and 1/2 months on Facebook?
These guys are unbelievable.
I`m sick and tired of the arrogance.
Now the Owners are at fault as well.. They caused this mess.
Settle in for a long lockout and the end of the NHL.
I hope in Europe they televise the games once these guys jump to those leagues.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Owuk3cZGtQ
I wonder how much teams have spent on exceeded medical bills from trying to figure out the concussion problems, or the rising cost of travel, the rising cost of food. Hell, think about how much sticks cost a team? Karlsson must go through $2000 worth of sticks each game alone.
I dont know why the NHL won't release expense comparisons but you just know that every single thing has increased in cost, especially player salary.
No one said they had to get it right the first time and have to live with 57%. The players did not lose 1 thing last time around. The "ridiculous" contracts are within the allowed amount of spending which is the problem - it is too much. Its not like these guys are getting 100M up front, but over 13-14 years, which is not extravagant spending. the NHL does not generate the revenue to justify their players earn the highest % salary over the NFL and NBA.
The players are only hurting themselves.
When he came up to the team last year, the energy the team created rose tenfold. It was incredible to see, and showed that he certainly does belong in the NHL. He is the pure definition of an energy player - the guy who makes the vital play at the correct moment to lift his teammates. It is always great to have guys like that on the ice and more importantly, in the locker room.
Yea, that might work. Or maybe just set up a thread dedicated to it here on the site. Won't be the most recent one but we can all just bookmark it and have any discussion there?
Neil
Smith
Greening
Regin
Condra
+ youngsters fighting for 3rd and 4th line minutes - I just don't know why Murray signed him really. Not terrible but did we really need him. Melnyk might be paying 1-2 guys to sit in the pressbox.
As if this situation couldn't get any worse... ANY worse... the bare bare minimum I would like to see is for Sens players to just keep their f**king mouths shut and stay away from the politics here. There are hundreds of other players that can run off their mouths to the media, Alfie and Spezza don't have to.
Video game talk and CBA talk is all we have left!
*sobs hysterically*
Daniel Alfredsson said if this season is lost, he will have played his last game vs the Rangers, in Round One last April.
So sad to see that it has come to this again !!
Also, Chris Phillips did make a comment and said "Gary Bettman is bluffing" !!
Why does Donald Fehr, not call Bettman with a counter offer
and continue negotiations, instead of simply walking away,
and ending talks on such a sour note ??
Donald Fehr is simply not interested in any compromise, and
it shows in his negotiating tactics, which are selfish !!
The running of the mouths etc by both sides has reiterated my view...and I think it is really a shame, I don't foresee myself paying to go to games after this lockout.
Still haven't stepped foot into a baseball stadium since the lockout, used to catch about a dozen games between the Jays/Expos....H ell I recieved my share of Jays seasons tickets when my Gramps passed away...let my cousin have both shares
Lockout talk just makes me angry.
Is there a reason that we only have 1 player per team on gm connected? If not i'm the islanders (i wanted a challenge) and would love to max out my roster if anyone is interested in joining my team.
VIDEO GAME NOT REAL LIFE- I can tell you that last night I made an offer to bring Martin Havlat back to the Sens organization. Still waiting to hear back from the Minnesota GM :)
Can you create your own team in GM connected (i.e. fantasy draft) and then play each other?
I used to do this all the time w my friends. We created a salary cap of 55 million and had a mock draft and then a 7 game playoff series.
Oh the good old university days where I should have been studying instead lol
LOL. What was your offer?
I am not going to characterize that at this time. Sorry too much Donald Fehr the last couple days. :)
Let's just call it a "starting" offer haha.
What the hell are you thinking?!
Also, if anyone is interested, I'm the GM of the Ducks and Bobby Ryan, Selanne, and Koivu are all on the block. It's time to rebuild this baby. If anyone wants Ryan, the asking price is:
2nd line center + top pick/prospect
or
Top pairing defenseman
tisk tisk tisk Chirp... tisk tisk tisk...
I put in a request for the Rangers yesterday, didnt check today to see if I got it or not. My GT is Inglewood Jacks.. Hopefully I got it!
I'll be on tonight and throughout the weekend...
Just looked at the league members, you did get the Rangers. They're a sick team in this game so you got lucky!
I would rather a challenge to be honest... to pull off a few trades and etc.
I would want to be Carolina... that's a piece of art waiting.
Sweet! Yeah I thought it was a little funny they were still there, they have some real nice trade pieces... Now if only I could get this NHL 13 app to work on my phone, can't figure out the log in... Is there somewhere on the 360 that I need to go in order to register or something? Anyone know?
I did no such thing! I think they may automatically set your trading block at the start. I'll have to change that when I get home!
haha! yeah they do automatically set some players on the trading block so that is what happened I guess. You have Gonchar on the block as well.
You can check it out here!
http://www.senschirp.ca/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=786:nhl13-senschirp-league&Itemid=13
great idea! I wish we could talk real hockey instead of videogame hockey :(
I can understand ELC contracts and the rush to get those done as they could extend beyond 3 years to 5. But what is the rush on any of the other contracts? I know there is an adjustment if the percentage goes from 57 to say 52%, but what difference does it make getting someone like Lehtonen signed before the lockout? those adjustments would happen regardless, no?
See you in the other thread haha
John Carlson gets a 6 year deal worth $23.8 mil. Cap hit under 4 million. Think that is a solid signing for Washington.
Really smart deal for Washington. If there's a rollback that's going to look like a complete steal!
Seems really expensive... and just enforces that the owners are their own worst enemies. Unless Dallas expects a 25% reduction in salaries...
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/78169/mika-zibanejad-leads-talented-group-of-ottawa-senators-prospects/
It would be a pretty interesting draft lottery if the NHL missed two entire seasons!
Here's an article that tried to calculate it. They claim our chances would be 2%.
http://www.dirtydangle.com/2012/07/what-would-weighted-draft-lottery-look.html
I would put money on Phoenix magically winning 1st overall though. The bankrupt teams always seem to win random draws ... almost as if they weren't really random ;)
Well...that would be my destination until real hockey starts again. See you either on this thread, or when the NHL sorts itself out again.
Those of us who still live in the real world thank you
This is such a great point, we all wasted a full year of hockey, all about how unfair the new CBA would be for the players, and how they were the only ones paying of giving in.
Well 7 years later and an increase of abotu 2 million in average salary, we once again have to listen to the players whine.
Well welcome to the real world where your employer pays you what they want and if you dont like it, GO LOOK FOR ANOTHER JOB!!!
Is it just me or are they not living in a fantasy world!
Won't happen.
Alfie has at least one year left in the tank - maybe more. And he already pretty much stated he's not going to play elsewhere during a lockout so he won't be using up anything left in his tank.
So barring a 2-year lockout, he'll play at least one more season regardless of when it is, I'm sure of it.
I fully believe he will play regardless. We were all worried this year, but I can see him playing many more years and maintaining a decent handle on his game. He just loves Ottawa and this game too much not too.
If there were no lockout, he might play this year and next (150 games or so).
With a year off or part of a year off, he might end up getting another season out of his legs - so maybe over 200 games.
All speculation, but I just don't see a lockout subtracting games for him.
I was at a trivia night last week and one of the picture rounds you had to identify the one thing missing from groups of 4. There were pictures of the blujeays logo,the argonauts logo and the raptors logo.
The correct answer as stated by the guy doing the questions was Toronto FC is missing from Toronto's professional sports teams because in no way could you describe the leafs as a professional sports organisation.
The OWNERS voted for the lockout.. all 30 of them. If Alfie retires because of the lockout.. blame Melnyk.
The players gave up 24% rollback to settle the CBA. But during that CBA their salaries grew 76% -- so they netted a growth in salary of 52%.
Now on the other hand.. the owners share fell to a low of 43% last season. From which they had to pay all operating expenses.. which just keep rising. Fuel & Electricity to run arenas. With the cost of jet fuel going up as well, I assume, the costs of those chartered planes are probably very high; 5 star hotels; meals for the players; limos; management & coaching salary; all equipment; best doctors & training staff.. I could go on and on.
The Owners HAVE TO get more share of the revenue to get close to being able to manage some kind of profit.
The players want what is fair.. to them.. NOT to the league. You can't expect the Owners to take a less percentage than the players.. because the costs wipe out most of the share of revenue these owners have.. in some cases it wipes out all of it...
If the players can't see that.. they are not to smart.
They will lose more in salary by staying out.. than they would over the course of a 6 yr CBA IF they took what the league offered now. The revenues would keep growing.
If the lockout happens.. the only way revenue will go, when the league starts up.. is down, down, down..
I know this is unrealistic, but I'm sick of hearing how selfish the players are. When will the owners grow some balls and say no to the Parise, Suter, Weber, Hossa, Kovalchuk, etc.....type players. What are they going to do? Go to the KHL?
Perfect example is that the owners are all crying poor, but yet they are all rushing to sign players prior to Sept.15. Does any of this make any sense?
That's like saying "hey everyone, the speed limit on the Queensway is 100 but let's all agree to go 80". Pretty soon one guy will go 85 then someone else 90 and then you're back to everyone going 120 again.
What the owners want, is rules to prevent those big contracts so that OTHER GMs can't make offers like that so they don't feel they have to in order to compete.
I get the irony, but they can't just stop short of the actual limits voluntarily and expect other GMs to do the same. In fact, if they did they'd be guilty of collusion anyway.
I'm starting to see the Owners side in all this - now most of the bonehead players with EGO maniac Fehr running the show are going to play hardball. Not saying all players are boneheads - but most aren't as smart as OUR CAPTAIN. Most are barely highschool graduates who have been living the big life since they were 18. DAMN GO TO A BAR WHEN THESE GUYS GO OUT AND THEY DON'T EVEN HAVE TO PULL OUT THEIR WALLETS.
Until they discuss the real causes of the problem, this is all pointless. 1) The rise of the Canadian Dollar has caused the average payroll to increase by US$5.17. The rise of the Canadian Dollar caused revenues to increase at a rate of more than 5% per year triggering the increase of the players' share of revenue from 54% to 57%, or $3 million per team. 3) This was offset by $1.25 million per team from the sharing of Canadian TV revenue and a further $1.25 million per bottom ten revenue team (at a loss to the top ten revenue teams) in revenue sharing. Without the rise of the Canadian Dollar, the average payroll would be $54 million for this season instead of $62.2 million. 4) the Cap and Floor were set at +/- $8 million rather than +/- 25%. That would have made the cap $67.5 million and the floor $40.5 million (as compared to $54.2 million). %) solution. Add the $2.5 million in savings to the bottom ten clubs from increased TV and revenue sharing from the rise of the Canadian Dollar and the floor becomes $43 million. The mid point becomes $57.3 million and the cap becomes $71.6 million. This works out to be a 52.72% share for the players. Call it even at 53% and drop the puck!
If they truly care about the health of the NHL.. and not themselves... then they would agree to a 50% share OR even take less...